Recent polls show the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations in Iceland remains tightly contested, with the latest Maskína survey placing Yes at 51.3% and No at 48.7% among decided voters. This near parity, combined with high undecided shares in earlier surveys and the salience of fisheries control, currency stability, and national sovereignty, has concentrated trader attention on narrow victory margins. The ballot itself addresses only the restart of talks—any eventual membership treaty would require a separate referendum—while turnout, late shifts on fishing policy, and regional voting patterns in Reykjavik versus rural areas remain key variables that could determine the final spread.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì <3% 35%
No <3% 33%
Sì 3–6% 32%
No 3–6% 25%
NUOVO
NUOVO
29 ago 2026
Sì 15%+
22%
Sì 12–15%
9%
Sì 9–12%
25%
Sì 6–9%
23%
Sì 3–6%
32%
Sì <3%
35%
No <3%
33%
No 3–6%
25%
No 6–9%
23%
No 9–12%
23%
No 12–15%
22%
No 15%+
10%
Sì <3% 35%
No <3% 33%
Sì 3–6% 32%
No 3–6% 25%
NUOVO
NUOVO
29 ago 2026
Sì 15%+
$70 Vol.
22%
Sì 12–15%
$63 Vol.
9%
Sì 9–12%
$0 Vol.
25%
Sì 6–9%
$0 Vol.
23%
Sì 3–6%
$0 Vol.
32%
Sì <3%
$0 Vol.
35%
No <3%
$0 Vol.
33%
No 3–6%
$0 Vol.
25%
No 6–9%
$0 Vol.
23%
No 9–12%
$6 Vol.
23%
No 12–15%
$70 Vol.
22%
No 15%+
$0 Vol.
10%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls show the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations in Iceland remains tightly contested, with the latest Maskína survey placing Yes at 51.3% and No at 48.7% among decided voters. This near parity, combined with high undecided shares in earlier surveys and the salience of fisheries control, currency stability, and national sovereignty, has concentrated trader attention on narrow victory margins. The ballot itself addresses only the restart of talks—any eventual membership treaty would require a separate referendum—while turnout, late shifts on fishing policy, and regional voting patterns in Reykjavik versus rural areas remain key variables that could determine the final spread.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercato aperto: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$209Data di fine
29 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls show the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations in Iceland remains tightly contested, with the latest Maskína survey placing Yes at 51.3% and No at 48.7% among decided voters. This near parity, combined with high undecided shares in earlier surveys and the salience of fisheries control, currency stability, and national sovereignty, has concentrated trader attention on narrow victory margins. The ballot itself addresses only the restart of talks—any eventual membership treaty would require a separate referendum—while turnout, late shifts on fishing policy, and regional voting patterns in Reykjavik versus rural areas remain key variables that could determine the final spread.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$209Data di fine
29 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations in Iceland remains tightly contested, with the latest Maskína survey placing Yes at 51.3% and No at 48.7% among decided voters. This near parity, combined with high undecided shares in earlier surveys and the salience of fisheries control, currency stability, and national sovereignty, has concentrated trader attention on narrow victory margins. The ballot itself addresses only the restart of talks—any eventual membership treaty would require a separate referendum—while turnout, late shifts on fishing policy, and regional voting patterns in Reykjavik versus rural areas remain key variables that could determine the final spread.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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