Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader in March 2026, following Ali Khamenei’s death in a February U.S.-Israeli strike on his Tehran compound, has shifted Iran’s power structure toward greater IRGC influence and internal security focus. The new leader has prioritized appointments such as Basij commander Hossein Taeb in August to expand neighborhood-level monitoring networks and suppress dissent amid lingering protests and economic strain. Ongoing calibrated escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, energy infrastructure threats, and a fragile post-ceasefire standoff with the United States and Israel continue to test regime cohesion. Trader consensus on further near-term leadership shifts reflects the Assembly of Experts’ role in formalizing transitions, historical patterns of managed succession under pressure, and risks from external military actions or domestic unrest that could accelerate additional changes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$23,497,292 Vol.
15 ago 2026
15 agosto
<1%
22 agosto
1%
31 agosto
1%
30 settembre
6%
31 ottobre
10%
30 novembre
12%
31 dicembre
18%
30 giugno 2027
27%
$23,497,292 Vol.
15 agosto
$60,914 Vol.
<1%
22 agosto
$33,055 Vol.
1%
31 agosto
$1,157,273 Vol.
1%
30 settembre
$440,964 Vol.
6%
31 ottobre
$8,886 Vol.
10%
30 novembre
$10,763 Vol.
12%
31 dicembre
$4,001,676 Vol.
18%
30 giugno 2027
$237,385 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader in March 2026, following Ali Khamenei’s death in a February U.S.-Israeli strike on his Tehran compound, has shifted Iran’s power structure toward greater IRGC influence and internal security focus. The new leader has prioritized appointments such as Basij commander Hossein Taeb in August to expand neighborhood-level monitoring networks and suppress dissent amid lingering protests and economic strain. Ongoing calibrated escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, energy infrastructure threats, and a fragile post-ceasefire standoff with the United States and Israel continue to test regime cohesion. Trader consensus on further near-term leadership shifts reflects the Assembly of Experts’ role in formalizing transitions, historical patterns of managed succession under pressure, and risks from external military actions or domestic unrest that could accelerate additional changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$23,497,292Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader in March 2026, following Ali Khamenei’s death in a February U.S.-Israeli strike on his Tehran compound, has shifted Iran’s power structure toward greater IRGC influence and internal security focus. The new leader has prioritized appointments such as Basij commander Hossein Taeb in August to expand neighborhood-level monitoring networks and suppress dissent amid lingering protests and economic strain. Ongoing calibrated escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, energy infrastructure threats, and a fragile post-ceasefire standoff with the United States and Israel continue to test regime cohesion. Trader consensus on further near-term leadership shifts reflects the Assembly of Experts’ role in formalizing transitions, historical patterns of managed succession under pressure, and risks from external military actions or domestic unrest that could accelerate additional changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,497,292Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader in March 2026, following Ali Khamenei’s death in a February U.S.-Israeli strike on his Tehran compound, has shifted Iran’s power structure toward greater IRGC influence and internal security focus. The new leader has prioritized appointments such as Basij commander Hossein Taeb in August to expand neighborhood-level monitoring networks and suppress dissent amid lingering protests and economic strain. Ongoing calibrated escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, energy infrastructure threats, and a fragile post-ceasefire standoff with the United States and Israel continue to test regime cohesion. Trader consensus on further near-term leadership shifts reflects the Assembly of Experts’ role in formalizing transitions, historical patterns of managed succession under pressure, and risks from external military actions or domestic unrest that could accelerate additional changes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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