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Geopolitica·Hezbollah

Israele annuncia la sospensione dell'offensiva in Libano da...?

Market icon
Geopolitica·Hezbollah

Israele annuncia la sospensione dell'offensiva in Libano da...?

$386,950 Vol.

30 giu 2026
Polymarket

$386,950 Vol.

Polymarket

17 aprile

$306,431 Vol.

27%

30 aprile

$58,412 Vol.

77%

31 maggio

$11,372 Vol.

88%

30 giugno

$10,735 Vol.

90%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Despite ongoing Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah rocket fire following the first direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington on April 14—hailed by the US as a historic milestone—traders price a 90% chance of an official suspension announcement by June 30, reflecting building diplomatic pressure from US mediation and a parallel US-Iran ceasefire that excluded Lebanon. Near-term odds remain lower, with April 17 at 47%, due to Israel's rejection of Washington's temporary ceasefire request, new military plans approved by the Chief of Staff, and Netanyahu's insistence on continuing operations against Hezbollah to secure a southern buffer zone. Upcoming security cabinet discussions and potential leader-level talks could accelerate de-escalation, though Hezbollah's non-participation adds uncertainty to any truce.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required.

Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify.

Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted.

Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$386,950
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 10, 2026, 2:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Despite ongoing Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah rocket fire following the first direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington on April 14—hailed by the US as a historic milestone—traders price a 90% chance of an official suspension announcement by June 30, reflecting building diplomatic pressure from US mediation and a parallel US-Iran ceasefire that excluded Lebanon. Near-term odds remain lower, with April 17 at 47%, due to Israel's rejection of Washington's temporary ceasefire request, new military plans approved by the Chief of Staff, and Netanyahu's insistence on continuing operations against Hezbollah to secure a southern buffer zone. Upcoming security cabinet discussions and potential leader-level talks could accelerate de-escalation, though Hezbollah's non-participation adds uncertainty to any truce.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required.

Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify.

Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted.

Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$386,950
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 10, 2026, 2:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

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Domande frequenti

"Israele annuncia la sospensione dell'offensiva in Libano da...?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 4 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "30 giugno" a 90%, seguito da "31 maggio" a 88%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 90¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 90% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Israele annuncia la sospensione dell'offensiva in Libano da...?" ha generato $386.9K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 10, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Israele annuncia la sospensione dell'offensiva in Libano da...?", esplora i 4 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Israele annuncia la sospensione dell'offensiva in Libano da...?" è "30 giugno" a 90%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 90% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "31 maggio" a 88%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Israele annuncia la sospensione dell'offensiva in Libano da...?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.