Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a closely contested Nasdaq 100 (NDX) year-end close, with 50% implied probability for below $23,500 narrowly leading 42.4% odds of exceeding $36,000 and mid-range buckets clustered at 40–42%, highlighting deep uncertainty from current levels near 26,300. Driving this split, NDX rallied almost 5% over the past week to record highs amid upbeat semiconductor outlooks and AI capex momentum, yet elevated valuations—trading at premiums to historical norms—fuel correction risks before potential new highs, as flagged in recent analyst notes. Bullish dynamics center on robust Magnificent Seven earnings growth and sustained low Fed funds rates supporting tech multiples, while bears emphasize rotation to value stocks, softening labor data, and geopolitical tensions as key differentiators. Q2 earnings season and May FOMC proceedings loom as pivotal catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$23,500-$25,000 80%
$30,500-$33,000 43%
$25,000-$26,500 42%
$26,500-$28,500 42%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
<$23,500
52%
$23,500-$25,000
80%
$25,000-$26,500
42%
$26,500-$28,500
42%
$28,500-$30,500
-
$30,500-$33,000
43%
$33,000-$36,000
42%
>$36,000
44%
$23,500-$25,000 80%
$30,500-$33,000 43%
$25,000-$26,500 42%
$26,500-$28,500 42%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
<$23,500
$0 Vol.
52%
$23,500-$25,000
$0 Vol.
80%
$25,000-$26,500
$0 Vol.
42%
$26,500-$28,500
$0 Vol.
42%
$28,500-$30,500
$0 Vol.
-
$30,500-$33,000
$0 Vol.
43%
$33,000-$36,000
$0 Vol.
42%
>$36,000
$42 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a closely contested Nasdaq 100 (NDX) year-end close, with 50% implied probability for below $23,500 narrowly leading 42.4% odds of exceeding $36,000 and mid-range buckets clustered at 40–42%, highlighting deep uncertainty from current levels near 26,300. Driving this split, NDX rallied almost 5% over the past week to record highs amid upbeat semiconductor outlooks and AI capex momentum, yet elevated valuations—trading at premiums to historical norms—fuel correction risks before potential new highs, as flagged in recent analyst notes. Bullish dynamics center on robust Magnificent Seven earnings growth and sustained low Fed funds rates supporting tech multiples, while bears emphasize rotation to value stocks, softening labor data, and geopolitical tensions as key differentiators. Q2 earnings season and May FOMC proceedings loom as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
Volume
$42Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a closely contested Nasdaq 100 (NDX) year-end close, with 50% implied probability for below $23,500 narrowly leading 42.4% odds of exceeding $36,000 and mid-range buckets clustered at 40–42%, highlighting deep uncertainty from current levels near 26,300. Driving this split, NDX rallied almost 5% over the past week to record highs amid upbeat semiconductor outlooks and AI capex momentum, yet elevated valuations—trading at premiums to historical norms—fuel correction risks before potential new highs, as flagged in recent analyst notes. Bullish dynamics center on robust Magnificent Seven earnings growth and sustained low Fed funds rates supporting tech multiples, while bears emphasize rotation to value stocks, softening labor data, and geopolitical tensions as key differentiators. Q2 earnings season and May FOMC proceedings loom as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$42Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a closely contested Nasdaq 100 (NDX) year-end close, with 50% implied probability for below $23,500 narrowly leading 42.4% odds of exceeding $36,000 and mid-range buckets clustered at 40–42%, highlighting deep uncertainty from current levels near 26,300. Driving this split, NDX rallied almost 5% over the past week to record highs amid upbeat semiconductor outlooks and AI capex momentum, yet elevated valuations—trading at premiums to historical norms—fuel correction risks before potential new highs, as flagged in recent analyst notes. Bullish dynamics center on robust Magnificent Seven earnings growth and sustained low Fed funds rates supporting tech multiples, while bears emphasize rotation to value stocks, softening labor data, and geopolitical tensions as key differentiators. Q2 earnings season and May FOMC proceedings loom as pivotal catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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