Moderate equity volatility supports the 84.5% market-implied odds against an NYSE market-wide circuit breaker (7% S&P 500 decline) before 2027. The VIX has traded in the 16–20 range through July 2026, well below crisis thresholds, reflecting contained investor fear amid resilient U.S. GDP growth forecasts of 1.5–2.5% and AI-driven capital spending. Sticky core inflation has kept the Fed on hold near 3.5–3.75%, limiting sharp rate shocks, while recent tariff-related swings in 2025 fell short of the 7% threshold without triggering halts. With no major geopolitical or recessionary catalysts imminent through year-end and historical triggers limited to events like 2020, trader consensus prices in low near-term tail risk for extreme single-day moves.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$93,461 Vol.
$93,461 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$93,461 Vol.
$93,461 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Moderate equity volatility supports the 84.5% market-implied odds against an NYSE market-wide circuit breaker (7% S&P 500 decline) before 2027. The VIX has traded in the 16–20 range through July 2026, well below crisis thresholds, reflecting contained investor fear amid resilient U.S. GDP growth forecasts of 1.5–2.5% and AI-driven capital spending. Sticky core inflation has kept the Fed on hold near 3.5–3.75%, limiting sharp rate shocks, while recent tariff-related swings in 2025 fell short of the 7% threshold without triggering halts. With no major geopolitical or recessionary catalysts imminent through year-end and historical triggers limited to events like 2020, trader consensus prices in low near-term tail risk for extreme single-day moves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$93,461Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Moderate equity volatility supports the 84.5% market-implied odds against an NYSE market-wide circuit breaker (7% S&P 500 decline) before 2027. The VIX has traded in the 16–20 range through July 2026, well below crisis thresholds, reflecting contained investor fear amid resilient U.S. GDP growth forecasts of 1.5–2.5% and AI-driven capital spending. Sticky core inflation has kept the Fed on hold near 3.5–3.75%, limiting sharp rate shocks, while recent tariff-related swings in 2025 fell short of the 7% threshold without triggering halts. With no major geopolitical or recessionary catalysts imminent through year-end and historical triggers limited to events like 2020, trader consensus prices in low near-term tail risk for extreme single-day moves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$93,461Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moderate equity volatility supports the 84.5% market-implied odds against an NYSE market-wide circuit breaker (7% S&P 500 decline) before 2027. The VIX has traded in the 16–20 range through July 2026, well below crisis thresholds, reflecting contained investor fear amid resilient U.S. GDP growth forecasts of 1.5–2.5% and AI-driven capital spending. Sticky core inflation has kept the Fed on hold near 3.5–3.75%, limiting sharp rate shocks, while recent tariff-related swings in 2025 fell short of the 7% threshold without triggering halts. With no major geopolitical or recessionary catalysts imminent through year-end and historical triggers limited to events like 2020, trader consensus prices in low near-term tail risk for extreme single-day moves.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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