The Supreme Court’s June 2026 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has become the central driver behind the market’s slim majority favoring invalidation. With a 6-3 conservative majority and prior signals from Justices Kavanaugh, Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch that AR-15-style rifles qualify as arms in common use under the Second Amendment and Bruen framework, traders see a realistic path to striking down the restrictions. Lower courts upheld the laws, but the high court’s recent expansion of gun rights and the rifles’ widespread lawful ownership create strong momentum for reversal. Oral arguments remain ahead in the fall term, leaving room for unexpected shifts in the final ruling expected by mid-2027.