Crystal Palace's commanding 3-0 first-leg quarter-final victory over two-time finalists Fiorentina has edged England to a 52% implied probability as the home country of the UEFA Europa Conference League champion, bolstering trader consensus on their likely semi-final advancement. Spain trails closely at 44.5% after Rayo Vallecano's identical 3-0 rout of AEK Athens, underscoring the razor-thin margin in this knockout phase with both sides holding massive aggregate leads ahead of second legs on April 16. Shakhtar Donetsk's 3-0 triumph over AZ Alkmaar supports Ukraine at 14.5%, while France clings to 28.5% on Strasbourg's top league-phase finish despite trailing Mainz 0-2, highlighting the competitive uncertainty with potential comebacks in high-stakes ties.