The closely contested 51% implied probability for Democrats winning all four core races reflects narrow polling margins and mixed early indicators across Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine. Democrats defend an open seat in Michigan and vulnerable incumbent Jon Ossoff in Georgia while targeting open Republican-held seats in North Carolina and Susan Collins’s Maine incumbency. Recent forecaster shifts, including moves toward Democratic leans in North Carolina and toss-up status elsewhere, alongside strong candidate recruitment and fundraising in these battlegrounds, sustain balance. Developments such as primary outcomes, national generic ballot trends, late-cycle advertising, and turnout patterns in swing states could alter odds by favoring either party’s path to a net gain or defensive hold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
52% probabilità
$20,164 Vol.
$20,164 Vol.
2 nov 2026
52% probabilità
$20,164 Vol.
$20,164 Vol.
2 nov 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The closely contested 51% implied probability for Democrats winning all four core races reflects narrow polling margins and mixed early indicators across Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine. Democrats defend an open seat in Michigan and vulnerable incumbent Jon Ossoff in Georgia while targeting open Republican-held seats in North Carolina and Susan Collins’s Maine incumbency. Recent forecaster shifts, including moves toward Democratic leans in North Carolina and toss-up status elsewhere, alongside strong candidate recruitment and fundraising in these battlegrounds, sustain balance. Developments such as primary outcomes, national generic ballot trends, late-cycle advertising, and turnout patterns in swing states could alter odds by favoring either party’s path to a net gain or defensive hold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$20,164Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The closely contested 51% implied probability for Democrats winning all four core races reflects narrow polling margins and mixed early indicators across Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine. Democrats defend an open seat in Michigan and vulnerable incumbent Jon Ossoff in Georgia while targeting open Republican-held seats in North Carolina and Susan Collins’s Maine incumbency. Recent forecaster shifts, including moves toward Democratic leans in North Carolina and toss-up status elsewhere, alongside strong candidate recruitment and fundraising in these battlegrounds, sustain balance. Developments such as primary outcomes, national generic ballot trends, late-cycle advertising, and turnout patterns in swing states could alter odds by favoring either party’s path to a net gain or defensive hold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Volume
$20,164Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 51% implied probability for Democrats winning all four core races reflects narrow polling margins and mixed early indicators across Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine. Democrats defend an open seat in Michigan and vulnerable incumbent Jon Ossoff in Georgia while targeting open Republican-held seats in North Carolina and Susan Collins’s Maine incumbency. Recent forecaster shifts, including moves toward Democratic leans in North Carolina and toss-up status elsewhere, alongside strong candidate recruitment and fundraising in these battlegrounds, sustain balance. Developments such as primary outcomes, national generic ballot trends, late-cycle advertising, and turnout patterns in swing states could alter odds by favoring either party’s path to a net gain or defensive hold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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