Trump’s renewed personal outreach to Kim Jong Un, including scaled-back U.S.-South Korea military exercises and public statements expecting a meeting later in 2026, has kept limited diplomatic momentum alive ahead of the November APEC summit in China. North Korea has responded cautiously, with officials stressing that any engagement requires U.S. acceptance of its nuclear status, sanctions relief, and an end to perceived hostile policies, while denying recent high-level contacts. These conditions remain unmet, and no preparatory working-level talks or policy shifts have been confirmed. A physical visit by Trump to North Korean territory by year-end would require overcoming these barriers plus tight timelines, consistent with traders assigning low implied probability to the outcome.