The tight clustering of probabilities around mid-range turnout bands for Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary reflects competing pressures on voter participation. A high-profile contest featuring incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has boosted visibility and mobilization on both sides, yet Alaska’s all-party primary—advancing only the top four candidates to a November ranked-choice general—limits broader engagement compared with a closed partisan primary. Historical primary turnout patterns, combined with variable mail and early voting rates, create substantial uncertainty around the precise total, while recent polling averages showing a narrow Peltola lead have not produced a decisive surge or drop in expected ballots. Upcoming certification of results and any late mail ballots could still shift the final count within the contested ranges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日23万未満 44%
23万〜24万5千 44%
26万〜27万5千 44%
275,000〜290,000 44%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
23万未満
44%
23万〜24万5千
44%
245,000〜260,000
43%
26万〜27万5千
44%
275,000〜290,000
44%
290K-305K
44%
305K-320K
43%
32万票以上
44%
23万未満 44%
23万〜24万5千 44%
26万〜27万5千 44%
275,000〜290,000 44%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
23万未満
$0 Vol.
44%
23万〜24万5千
$0 Vol.
44%
245,000〜260,000
$0 Vol.
43%
26万〜27万5千
$0 Vol.
44%
275,000〜290,000
$0 Vol.
44%
290K-305K
$0 Vol.
44%
305K-320K
$0 Vol.
43%
32万票以上
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight clustering of probabilities around mid-range turnout bands for Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary reflects competing pressures on voter participation. A high-profile contest featuring incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has boosted visibility and mobilization on both sides, yet Alaska’s all-party primary—advancing only the top four candidates to a November ranked-choice general—limits broader engagement compared with a closed partisan primary. Historical primary turnout patterns, combined with variable mail and early voting rates, create substantial uncertainty around the precise total, while recent polling averages showing a narrow Peltola lead have not produced a decisive surge or drop in expected ballots. Upcoming certification of results and any late mail ballots could still shift the final count within the contested ranges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight clustering of probabilities around mid-range turnout bands for Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary reflects competing pressures on voter participation. A high-profile contest featuring incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has boosted visibility and mobilization on both sides, yet Alaska’s all-party primary—advancing only the top four candidates to a November ranked-choice general—limits broader engagement compared with a closed partisan primary. Historical primary turnout patterns, combined with variable mail and early voting rates, create substantial uncertainty around the precise total, while recent polling averages showing a narrow Peltola lead have not produced a decisive surge or drop in expected ballots. Upcoming certification of results and any late mail ballots could still shift the final count within the contested ranges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of probabilities around mid-range turnout bands for Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary reflects competing pressures on voter participation. A high-profile contest featuring incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has boosted visibility and mobilization on both sides, yet Alaska’s all-party primary—advancing only the top four candidates to a November ranked-choice general—limits broader engagement compared with a closed partisan primary. Historical primary turnout patterns, combined with variable mail and early voting rates, create substantial uncertainty around the precise total, while recent polling averages showing a narrow Peltola lead have not produced a decisive surge or drop in expected ballots. Upcoming certification of results and any late mail ballots could still shift the final count within the contested ranges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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