The tight pricing in the CA-44 House margin-of-victory market reflects the district's strong Democratic lean offset by limited recent polling and campaign visibility ahead of the November general election. Incumbent Nanette Barragán advanced from the June top-two primary with roughly 77 percent of the vote against Republican Genevieve Angel, consistent with voter registration advantages and historical results in this South Los Angeles and Harbor-area seat. Analysts continue to rate the contest Solid Democratic, yet the balanced trader consensus across candidate and margin buckets signals uncertainty over turnout, national political conditions, and any late-cycle shifts that could alter the final spread. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days to separate the probabilities, leaving the outcome sensitive to standard factors such as ballot composition and voter mobilization in the final weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日民主党 50-55% 40%
民主党 45-50% 39%
民主党 40-45% 39%
民主党 35-40％ 39%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党 55％以上
38%
民主党 50-55%
40%
民主党 45-50%
39%
民主党 40-45%
39%
民主党 35-40％
39%
民主党 30〜35%
39%
民主党 25-30%
39%
民主党 15～25％
39%
民主党 0-15%
39%
共和党勝利
38%
民主党 50-55% 40%
民主党 45-50% 39%
民主党 40-45% 39%
民主党 35-40％ 39%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党 55％以上
$0 Vol.
38%
民主党 50-55%
$0 Vol.
40%
民主党 45-50%
$0 Vol.
39%
民主党 40-45%
$0 Vol.
39%
民主党 35-40％
$0 Vol.
39%
民主党 30〜35%
$0 Vol.
39%
民主党 25-30%
$0 Vol.
39%
民主党 15～25％
$0 Vol.
39%
民主党 0-15%
$0 Vol.
39%
共和党勝利
$10 Vol.
38%
The 2026 CA-44 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-44 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight pricing in the CA-44 House margin-of-victory market reflects the district's strong Democratic lean offset by limited recent polling and campaign visibility ahead of the November general election. Incumbent Nanette Barragán advanced from the June top-two primary with roughly 77 percent of the vote against Republican Genevieve Angel, consistent with voter registration advantages and historical results in this South Los Angeles and Harbor-area seat. Analysts continue to rate the contest Solid Democratic, yet the balanced trader consensus across candidate and margin buckets signals uncertainty over turnout, national political conditions, and any late-cycle shifts that could alter the final spread. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days to separate the probabilities, leaving the outcome sensitive to standard factors such as ballot composition and voter mobilization in the final weeks.
The 2026 CA-44 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-44 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-44 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
音量
$10終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-44 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-44 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight pricing in the CA-44 House margin-of-victory market reflects the district's strong Democratic lean offset by limited recent polling and campaign visibility ahead of the November general election. Incumbent Nanette Barragán advanced from the June top-two primary with roughly 77 percent of the vote against Republican Genevieve Angel, consistent with voter registration advantages and historical results in this South Los Angeles and Harbor-area seat. Analysts continue to rate the contest Solid Democratic, yet the balanced trader consensus across candidate and margin buckets signals uncertainty over turnout, national political conditions, and any late-cycle shifts that could alter the final spread. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days to separate the probabilities, leaving the outcome sensitive to standard factors such as ballot composition and voter mobilization in the final weeks.
The 2026 CA-44 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-44 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-44 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$10終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The tight pricing in the CA-44 House margin-of-victory market reflects the district's strong Democratic lean offset by limited recent polling and campaign visibility ahead of the November general election. Incumbent Nanette Barragán advanced from the June top-two primary with roughly 77 percent of the vote against Republican Genevieve Angel, consistent with voter registration advantages and historical results in this South Los Angeles and Harbor-area seat. Analysts continue to rate the contest Solid Democratic, yet the balanced trader consensus across candidate and margin buckets signals uncertainty over turnout, national political conditions, and any late-cycle shifts that could alter the final spread. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days to separate the probabilities, leaving the outcome sensitive to standard factors such as ballot composition and voter mobilization in the final weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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