The Cuban Communist Party's entrenched security apparatus and control over key institutions have sustained its hold on power through mid-2026 despite severe economic strain from U.S. sanctions, an oil blockade, and the cutoff of Venezuelan support after Nicolás Maduro's ouster. High-level bilateral negotiations, including prisoner releases, have advanced without producing a transition or fracture in leadership under Miguel Díaz-Canel. Recent localized protests over prolonged blackouts and shortages have remained contained, reflecting limited organized opposition capable of forcing regime change before year-end. Traders price the low odds of collapse accordingly, citing the government's historical resilience and preference for incremental adjustments over wholesale upheaval.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
$1,409,072 Vol.
$1,409,072 Vol.
2026/12/31
$1,409,072 Vol.
$1,409,072 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Cuban Communist Party's entrenched security apparatus and control over key institutions have sustained its hold on power through mid-2026 despite severe economic strain from U.S. sanctions, an oil blockade, and the cutoff of Venezuelan support after Nicolás Maduro's ouster. High-level bilateral negotiations, including prisoner releases, have advanced without producing a transition or fracture in leadership under Miguel Díaz-Canel. Recent localized protests over prolonged blackouts and shortages have remained contained, reflecting limited organized opposition capable of forcing regime change before year-end. Traders price the low odds of collapse accordingly, citing the government's historical resilience and preference for incremental adjustments over wholesale upheaval.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
音量
$1,409,072終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Cuban Communist Party's entrenched security apparatus and control over key institutions have sustained its hold on power through mid-2026 despite severe economic strain from U.S. sanctions, an oil blockade, and the cutoff of Venezuelan support after Nicolás Maduro's ouster. High-level bilateral negotiations, including prisoner releases, have advanced without producing a transition or fracture in leadership under Miguel Díaz-Canel. Recent localized protests over prolonged blackouts and shortages have remained contained, reflecting limited organized opposition capable of forcing regime change before year-end. Traders price the low odds of collapse accordingly, citing the government's historical resilience and preference for incremental adjustments over wholesale upheaval.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,409,072終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Cuban Communist Party's entrenched security apparatus and control over key institutions have sustained its hold on power through mid-2026 despite severe economic strain from U.S. sanctions, an oil blockade, and the cutoff of Venezuelan support after Nicolás Maduro's ouster. High-level bilateral negotiations, including prisoner releases, have advanced without producing a transition or fracture in leadership under Miguel Díaz-Canel. Recent localized protests over prolonged blackouts and shortages have remained contained, reflecting limited organized opposition capable of forcing regime change before year-end. Traders price the low odds of collapse accordingly, citing the government's historical resilience and preference for incremental adjustments over wholesale upheaval.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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