Trader consensus slightly favors the Cuban regime enduring through 2026 at 51% implied probability for "No," reflecting its historical resilience despite acute crises, balanced against escalating pressures from nationwide blackouts in March, attacks on Communist Party offices, and ongoing protests over food shortages and power outages. US-imposed oil blockades since January have deepened the energy collapse, prompting sporadic cacerolazos and chants for freedom, while President Díaz-Canel's April prisoner releases—over 2,000 individuals—and calls for unconditional US dialogue signal de-escalation efforts amid defiance. Lack of organized opposition and loyal security forces maintain stability, but mass uprisings, military defections, or further economic implosion could tip toward regime fall; conversely, external aid or repression might solidify survival.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$160,276 Vol.
$160,276 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$160,276 Vol.
$160,276 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus slightly favors the Cuban regime enduring through 2026 at 51% implied probability for "No," reflecting its historical resilience despite acute crises, balanced against escalating pressures from nationwide blackouts in March, attacks on Communist Party offices, and ongoing protests over food shortages and power outages. US-imposed oil blockades since January have deepened the energy collapse, prompting sporadic cacerolazos and chants for freedom, while President Díaz-Canel's April prisoner releases—over 2,000 individuals—and calls for unconditional US dialogue signal de-escalation efforts amid defiance. Lack of organized opposition and loyal security forces maintain stability, but mass uprisings, military defections, or further economic implosion could tip toward regime fall; conversely, external aid or repression might solidify survival.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
音量
$160,276終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus slightly favors the Cuban regime enduring through 2026 at 51% implied probability for "No," reflecting its historical resilience despite acute crises, balanced against escalating pressures from nationwide blackouts in March, attacks on Communist Party offices, and ongoing protests over food shortages and power outages. US-imposed oil blockades since January have deepened the energy collapse, prompting sporadic cacerolazos and chants for freedom, while President Díaz-Canel's April prisoner releases—over 2,000 individuals—and calls for unconditional US dialogue signal de-escalation efforts amid defiance. Lack of organized opposition and loyal security forces maintain stability, but mass uprisings, military defections, or further economic implosion could tip toward regime fall; conversely, external aid or repression might solidify survival.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$160,276終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus slightly favors the Cuban regime enduring through 2026 at 51% implied probability for "No," reflecting its historical resilience despite acute crises, balanced against escalating pressures from nationwide blackouts in March, attacks on Communist Party offices, and ongoing protests over food shortages and power outages. US-imposed oil blockades since January have deepened the energy collapse, prompting sporadic cacerolazos and chants for freedom, while President Díaz-Canel's April prisoner releases—over 2,000 individuals—and calls for unconditional US dialogue signal de-escalation efforts amid defiance. Lack of organized opposition and loyal security forces maintain stability, but mass uprisings, military defections, or further economic implosion could tip toward regime fall; conversely, external aid or repression might solidify survival.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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