The Dublin Central by-election, triggered by Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe’s resignation, features 14 candidates contesting a single Dáil seat under Ireland’s single transferable vote system. A mid-May Ipsos B&A poll for The Irish Times and TG4 showed Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan leading first-preference support at 21 percent, ahead of Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis on 18 percent and independent Gerry Hutch on 14 percent. Trader consensus at 79 percent for Ennis reflects expectations that transfers from eliminated left-leaning candidates, including Labour, People Before Profit, and Green Party contenders, will accumulate strongly behind him in later counts. Boylan’s narrower path depends on consolidating Sinn Féin and anti-establishment preferences amid lower by-election turnout. The outcome hinges on preference flows rather than first-preference margins alone.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ダニエル・エニス 79%
ジャニス・ボイラン 16.5%
ゲリー・ハッチ 1.8%
マラキー・スティーソン 1.4%
$3,179,710 Vol.
$3,179,710 Vol.
ダニエル・エニス
79%
ジャニス・ボイラン
17%
ゲリー・ハッチ
2%
マラキー・スティーソン
1%
ジャネット・ホーナー
1%
レイ・マカダム
<1%
ジョン・スティーブンズ
<1%
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
<1%
ギリアン・シェラット
<1%
セーアマス・マグラッタン
<1%
イアン・ノエル・スミス
<1%
メアリー・フィッツパトリック
<1%
ダニエル・エニス 79%
ジャニス・ボイラン 16.5%
ゲリー・ハッチ 1.8%
マラキー・スティーソン 1.4%
$3,179,710 Vol.
$3,179,710 Vol.
ダニエル・エニス
79%
ジャニス・ボイラン
17%
ゲリー・ハッチ
2%
マラキー・スティーソン
1%
ジャネット・ホーナー
1%
レイ・マカダム
<1%
ジョン・スティーブンズ
<1%
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
<1%
ギリアン・シェラット
<1%
セーアマス・マグラッタン
<1%
イアン・ノエル・スミス
<1%
メアリー・フィッツパトリック
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Dublin Central by-election, triggered by Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe’s resignation, features 14 candidates contesting a single Dáil seat under Ireland’s single transferable vote system. A mid-May Ipsos B&A poll for The Irish Times and TG4 showed Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan leading first-preference support at 21 percent, ahead of Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis on 18 percent and independent Gerry Hutch on 14 percent. Trader consensus at 79 percent for Ennis reflects expectations that transfers from eliminated left-leaning candidates, including Labour, People Before Profit, and Green Party contenders, will accumulate strongly behind him in later counts. Boylan’s narrower path depends on consolidating Sinn Féin and anti-establishment preferences amid lower by-election turnout. The outcome hinges on preference flows rather than first-preference margins alone.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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