Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term arrest odds for Andrew or Tristan Tate—1% for March 31 (now resolved No), 20% for April 30, and 35% for June 30—driven by their continued freedom despite mounting legal pressures. Romanian human trafficking trial proceedings persist under judicial supervision, but a 2025 travel ban lift has enabled unrestricted global movement, including a high-profile Hong Kong appearance in mid-March 2026. UK prosecutors hold 21 criminal charges (rape, trafficking) pending Romanian resolution, while a civil abuse trial advances to June 22 amid reopened Bedfordshire Police probes. No verified arrest catalysts in the past month; watch Romanian court dates and UK extradition timelines for momentum shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Either Tate brother arrested by...?
Either Tate brother arrested by...?
March 31
1%
April 30
13%
June 30
23%
$1,621 Vol.
March 31
1%
April 30
13%
June 30
23%
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日: Mar 18, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term arrest odds for Andrew or Tristan Tate—1% for March 31 (now resolved No), 20% for April 30, and 35% for June 30—driven by their continued freedom despite mounting legal pressures. Romanian human trafficking trial proceedings persist under judicial supervision, but a 2025 travel ban lift has enabled unrestricted global movement, including a high-profile Hong Kong appearance in mid-March 2026. UK prosecutors hold 21 criminal charges (rape, trafficking) pending Romanian resolution, while a civil abuse trial advances to June 22 amid reopened Bedfordshire Police probes. No verified arrest catalysts in the past month; watch Romanian court dates and UK extradition timelines for momentum shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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