Graham Platner, the former Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine, withdrew from the race in July 2026 following public allegations of sexual assault from an ex-partner dating to 2021. No formal complaint has been filed with law enforcement, and authorities including the Hancock County District Attorney and Maine State Police have confirmed the absence of any active criminal investigation or charges as of early August. Sexual assault cases typically require victim-initiated reports, detailed evidence review, and prosecutorial discretion, processes that rarely advance to formal charges within weeks of an allegation surfacing. Traders assign a 95.9% probability to no charges by August 31 because more than a month has passed without procedural movement and the matter remains a private dispute rather than an active law enforcement matter. Late developments such as the accuser submitting a formal complaint or new corroborating evidence emerging could theoretically prompt swift action, though standard investigative timelines make such resolution before month-end unlikely.