**Trader consensus on "No" for a hantavirus outbreak by June 30 reflects the contained nature of the May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius, with roughly 10-13 confirmed or probable cases and three fatalities limited to ship passengers and crew.** No secondary transmission to the general population has occurred, and U.S. monitoring of exposed individuals shows no new symptomatic cases as of mid-June. Hantavirus incidence remains low historically, with sporadic rodent-borne spillovers rather than sustained chains; official surveillance from CDC and WHO reports no concurrent clusters or rodent population surges in the Americas that would drive rapid expansion before month-end. The 13-day window to resolution further reduces the chance of an undetected escalation meeting typical outbreak thresholds. A realistic scenario that could shift odds would involve confirmation of multiple new, linked cases from an unrecognized exposure event or revised case definitions that reclassify the ship cluster.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6月30日までにハンタウイルスの発生？
6月30日までにハンタウイルスの発生？
はい
$78,078 Vol.
$78,078 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$78,078 Vol.
$78,078 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Trader consensus on "No" for a hantavirus outbreak by June 30 reflects the contained nature of the May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius, with roughly 10-13 confirmed or probable cases and three fatalities limited to ship passengers and crew.** No secondary transmission to the general population has occurred, and U.S. monitoring of exposed individuals shows no new symptomatic cases as of mid-June. Hantavirus incidence remains low historically, with sporadic rodent-borne spillovers rather than sustained chains; official surveillance from CDC and WHO reports no concurrent clusters or rodent population surges in the Americas that would drive rapid expansion before month-end. The 13-day window to resolution further reduces the chance of an undetected escalation meeting typical outbreak thresholds. A realistic scenario that could shift odds would involve confirmation of multiple new, linked cases from an unrecognized exposure event or revised case definitions that reclassify the ship cluster.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 11, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
音量
$78,078終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 11, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Trader consensus on "No" for a hantavirus outbreak by June 30 reflects the contained nature of the May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius, with roughly 10-13 confirmed or probable cases and three fatalities limited to ship passengers and crew.** No secondary transmission to the general population has occurred, and U.S. monitoring of exposed individuals shows no new symptomatic cases as of mid-June. Hantavirus incidence remains low historically, with sporadic rodent-borne spillovers rather than sustained chains; official surveillance from CDC and WHO reports no concurrent clusters or rodent population surges in the Americas that would drive rapid expansion before month-end. The 13-day window to resolution further reduces the chance of an undetected escalation meeting typical outbreak thresholds. A realistic scenario that could shift odds would involve confirmation of multiple new, linked cases from an unrecognized exposure event or revised case definitions that reclassify the ship cluster.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$78,078終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 11, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on "No" for a hantavirus outbreak by June 30 reflects the contained nature of the May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius, with roughly 10-13 confirmed or probable cases and three fatalities limited to ship passengers and crew.** No secondary transmission to the general population has occurred, and U.S. monitoring of exposed individuals shows no new symptomatic cases as of mid-June. Hantavirus incidence remains low historically, with sporadic rodent-borne spillovers rather than sustained chains; official surveillance from CDC and WHO reports no concurrent clusters or rodent population surges in the Americas that would drive rapid expansion before month-end. The 13-day window to resolution further reduces the chance of an undetected escalation meeting typical outbreak thresholds. A realistic scenario that could shift odds would involve confirmation of multiple new, linked cases from an unrecognized exposure event or revised case definitions that reclassify the ship cluster.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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