The razor-thin polling margin ahead of Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks—currently 51.3% Yes to 48.7% No—has intensified mobilization by both camps, supporting expectations of solid but uncertain turnout in line with Iceland’s typical 75-85% range for national votes. Early voting since late July, regional divides (stronger capital support), and lingering undecided voters keep probabilities distributed across multiple bins. Weather on election day, final campaign intensity, or shifts in fisheries and sovereignty concerns could widen or compress participation and separate the leading ranges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日75〜80％ 28%
80～85％ 27%
70〜75％ 27%
45〜50％ 26%
新規
新規
2026/08/29
45％未満
24%
45〜50％
26%
50〜55％
25%
55～60％
24%
60～65％
26%
65〜70％
26%
70〜75％
27%
75〜80％
28%
80～85％
27%
85％以上
11%
75〜80％ 28%
80～85％ 27%
70〜75％ 27%
45〜50％ 26%
新規
新規
2026/08/29
45％未満
$0 Vol.
24%
45〜50％
$0 Vol.
26%
50〜55％
$0 Vol.
25%
55～60％
$0 Vol.
24%
60～65％
$0 Vol.
26%
65〜70％
$0 Vol.
26%
70〜75％
$0 Vol.
27%
75〜80％
$0 Vol.
28%
80～85％
$0 Vol.
27%
85％以上
$0 Vol.
11%
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The razor-thin polling margin ahead of Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks—currently 51.3% Yes to 48.7% No—has intensified mobilization by both camps, supporting expectations of solid but uncertain turnout in line with Iceland’s typical 75-85% range for national votes. Early voting since late July, regional divides (stronger capital support), and lingering undecided voters keep probabilities distributed across multiple bins. Weather on election day, final campaign intensity, or shifts in fisheries and sovereignty concerns could widen or compress participation and separate the leading ranges.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
マーケット開始日： Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/29マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The razor-thin polling margin ahead of Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks—currently 51.3% Yes to 48.7% No—has intensified mobilization by both camps, supporting expectations of solid but uncertain turnout in line with Iceland’s typical 75-85% range for national votes. Early voting since late July, regional divides (stronger capital support), and lingering undecided voters keep probabilities distributed across multiple bins. Weather on election day, final campaign intensity, or shifts in fisheries and sovereignty concerns could widen or compress participation and separate the leading ranges.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
音量
$0終了日
2026/08/29マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The razor-thin polling margin ahead of Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks—currently 51.3% Yes to 48.7% No—has intensified mobilization by both camps, supporting expectations of solid but uncertain turnout in line with Iceland’s typical 75-85% range for national votes. Early voting since late July, regional divides (stronger capital support), and lingering undecided voters keep probabilities distributed across multiple bins. Weather on election day, final campaign intensity, or shifts in fisheries and sovereignty concerns could widen or compress participation and separate the leading ranges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問