Recent reports indicate Israeli special forces and Mossad conducted limited ground operations inside Iran as early as March 2026, primarily to support intelligence and target nuclear or missile infrastructure during the broader U.S.-Israeli air campaign. These actions followed major airstrikes in Operations Rising Lion and Roaring Lion, which degraded Iranian air defenses, missile production, and enrichment sites. As of mid-September 2026, no large-scale ground invasion has been officially confirmed by Israel, with activity limited to targeted strikes on rebuilt defenses and ongoing economic pressure on Tehran. Diplomatic efforts involving the U.S., including talks on nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz, alongside military coordination meetings with Arab states, have so far contained escalation, though Iranian rebuilding of missile capabilities and regional tensions could prompt further Israeli responses.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,746,488 Vol.
12月31日
13%
$1,746,488 Vol.
12月31日
13%
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirming that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
マーケット開始日: Jul 1, 2026, 12:13 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirming that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent reports indicate Israeli special forces and Mossad conducted limited ground operations inside Iran as early as March 2026, primarily to support intelligence and target nuclear or missile infrastructure during the broader U.S.-Israeli air campaign. These actions followed major airstrikes in Operations Rising Lion and Roaring Lion, which degraded Iranian air defenses, missile production, and enrichment sites. As of mid-September 2026, no large-scale ground invasion has been officially confirmed by Israel, with activity limited to targeted strikes on rebuilt defenses and ongoing economic pressure on Tehran. Diplomatic efforts involving the U.S., including talks on nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz, alongside military coordination meetings with Arab states, have so far contained escalation, though Iranian rebuilding of missile capabilities and regional tensions could prompt further Israeli responses.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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