Trader consensus on the Paris mayoral runoff heavily favors a narrow Emmanuel Grégoire victory under 5 points at 48.5%, driven by recent polls like IFOP's October survey showing him leading Rachida Dati 51%-49% in a head-to-head, up from prior tighter margins amid left-wing voter consolidation post-first-round fragmentation. Dati's outright win trades at 25.5% on her strong right-wing base and national profile as Culture Minister, bolstered by LR endorsements, while Grégoire's 5-10% edge at 22.5% reflects base rates from past Paris races where incumbents eke out slim wins. Key shifts include Grégoire distancing from unpopular Mayor Hidalgo and Dati's attacks on security issues; upcoming debates and holiday-season momentum could sway these tight implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日エマニュエル・グレゴワール <5% 49%
ラシダ・ダティ勝利 26%
エマニュエル・グレゴワール 5〜10％ 23%
エマニュエル・グレゴワール 10〜15％ 3.4%
NEW
$47,341 Vol.
NEW
$47,341 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
エマニュエル・グレゴワール 20％以上
1%
エマニュエル・グレゴワール 15〜20％
1%
エマニュエル・グレゴワール 10〜15％
3%
エマニュエル・グレゴワール 5〜10％
23%
エマニュエル・グレゴワール <5%
49%
ラシダ・ダティ勝利
26%
エマニュエル・グレゴワール <5% 49%
ラシダ・ダティ勝利 26%
エマニュエル・グレゴワール 5〜10％ 23%
エマニュエル・グレゴワール 10〜15％ 3.4%
NEW
$47,341 Vol.
NEW
$47,341 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
エマニュエル・グレゴワール 20％以上
$5,850 Vol.
1%
エマニュエル・グレゴワール 15〜20％
$5,309 Vol.
1%
エマニュエル・グレゴワール 10〜15％
$5,870 Vol.
3%
エマニュエル・グレゴワール 5〜10％
$8,753 Vol.
23%
エマニュエル・グレゴワール <5%
$11,281 Vol.
49%
ラシダ・ダティ勝利
$10,278 Vol.
26%
The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
マーケット開始日： Mar 16, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
音量
$47,341終了日
Mar 22, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
音量
$47,341終了日
Mar 22, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Paris mayoral runoff heavily favors a narrow Emmanuel Grégoire victory under 5 points at 48.5%, driven by recent polls like IFOP's October survey showing him leading Rachida Dati 51%-49% in a head-to-head, up from prior tighter margins amid left-wing voter consolidation post-first-round fragmentation. Dati's outright win trades at 25.5% on her strong right-wing base and national profile as Culture Minister, bolstered by LR endorsements, while Grégoire's 5-10% edge at 22.5% reflects base rates from past Paris races where incumbents eke out slim wins. Key shifts include Grégoire distancing from unpopular Mayor Hidalgo and Dati's attacks on security issues; upcoming debates and holiday-season momentum could sway these tight implied probabilities.
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