The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report moved the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund depletion date forward to the fourth quarter of 2032, with the combined Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance funds now projected for the third quarter of 2034. This outlook reflects a widened 75-year actuarial shortfall of 4.42 percent of taxable payroll, driven primarily by lower fertility rates, reduced immigration projections, and revenue effects from recent tax legislation. Payroll taxes continue to fall short of benefit outlays, drawing down reserves that stood at $2.56 trillion at the end of 2025. Without congressional changes to taxes or benefits, automatic reductions of roughly 17–22 percent would begin at depletion. No major reforms have advanced in 2026, leaving the timeline sensitive to future demographic updates or policy shifts ahead of the next trustees report.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日社会保障債務超過者は... ？
社会保障債務超過者は... ？
新規
2028/12/31
2027年12月31日
11%
2028年12月31日
17%
$394 Vol.
2027年12月31日
$349 Vol.
11%
2028年12月31日
$45 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report moved the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund depletion date forward to the fourth quarter of 2032, with the combined Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance funds now projected for the third quarter of 2034. This outlook reflects a widened 75-year actuarial shortfall of 4.42 percent of taxable payroll, driven primarily by lower fertility rates, reduced immigration projections, and revenue effects from recent tax legislation. Payroll taxes continue to fall short of benefit outlays, drawing down reserves that stood at $2.56 trillion at the end of 2025. Without congressional changes to taxes or benefits, automatic reductions of roughly 17–22 percent would begin at depletion. No major reforms have advanced in 2026, leaving the timeline sensitive to future demographic updates or policy shifts ahead of the next trustees report.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
音量
$394終了日
2029/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report moved the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund depletion date forward to the fourth quarter of 2032, with the combined Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance funds now projected for the third quarter of 2034. This outlook reflects a widened 75-year actuarial shortfall of 4.42 percent of taxable payroll, driven primarily by lower fertility rates, reduced immigration projections, and revenue effects from recent tax legislation. Payroll taxes continue to fall short of benefit outlays, drawing down reserves that stood at $2.56 trillion at the end of 2025. Without congressional changes to taxes or benefits, automatic reductions of roughly 17–22 percent would begin at depletion. No major reforms have advanced in 2026, leaving the timeline sensitive to future demographic updates or policy shifts ahead of the next trustees report.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$394終了日
2029/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report moved the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund depletion date forward to the fourth quarter of 2032, with the combined Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance funds now projected for the third quarter of 2034. This outlook reflects a widened 75-year actuarial shortfall of 4.42 percent of taxable payroll, driven primarily by lower fertility rates, reduced immigration projections, and revenue effects from recent tax legislation. Payroll taxes continue to fall short of benefit outlays, drawing down reserves that stood at $2.56 trillion at the end of 2025. Without congressional changes to taxes or benefits, automatic reductions of roughly 17–22 percent would begin at depletion. No major reforms have advanced in 2026, leaving the timeline sensitive to future demographic updates or policy shifts ahead of the next trustees report.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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