On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, reinstated in mid-July 2026 after the collapse of a June ceasefire agreement, remains in active enforcement amid renewed clashes and reported attacks on commercial vessels. Primary drivers include ongoing US-Iran military exchanges, disputes over nuclear negotiations and sanctions relief, and Iranian actions affecting maritime traffic through the critical oil transit route. Recent developments center on CENTCOM operations redirecting ships and tit-for-tat strikes, with no confirmed diplomatic breakthroughs since the July reimposition. Trader assessments hinge on signals from the Trump administration regarding potential new talks, Iranian compliance on shipping access, or further escalation that could delay or accelerate any announcement ending the blockade. Key upcoming factors include any scheduled bilateral or multilateral discussions and real-time shifts in naval enforcement.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てウィンドウ
最終
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, reinstated in mid-July 2026 after the collapse of a June ceasefire agreement, remains in active enforcement amid renewed clashes and reported attacks on commercial vessels. Primary drivers include ongoing US-Iran military exchanges, disputes over nuclear negotiations and sanctions relief, and Iranian actions affecting maritime traffic through the critical oil transit route. Recent developments center on CENTCOM operations redirecting ships and tit-for-tat strikes, with no confirmed diplomatic breakthroughs since the July reimposition. Trader assessments hinge on signals from the Trump administration regarding potential new talks, Iranian compliance on shipping access, or further escalation that could delay or accelerate any announcement ending the blockade. Key upcoming factors include any scheduled bilateral or multilateral discussions and real-time shifts in naval enforcement.
Diplomatic talks continue amid uncertainty over permanent end to naval blockade
October 31 jumps to 70%6%
As of late July, the US and Iran engaged in ongoing diplomatic negotiations to halt hostilities and discuss the Strait of Hormuz, but no formal timeline for permanently ending the blockade was established, maintaining market uncertainty about the blockade's future.
Jul 31 2026
Trump cancels planned attack on Iran after agreement outline reached
August 31 rises to 40%4%
President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned military attack on Iran after Iran and regional neighbors requested a hold on strikes, indicating potential diplomatic progress and reducing immediate conflict risks.
Jul 31 2026
US Navy actively enforces Iran blockade with helicopter support, redirects vessels
August 31 drops to 34%6%
US Navy operations, including helicopter support aboard the USS Michael Murphy, continued enforcing the naval blockade against Iran, redirecting commercial vessels. This military activity indicated ongoing commitment to the blockade, causing market prices for near-term blockade end dates to decline.
Jul 31 2026
Reports indicate ongoing diplomatic negotiations but no formal end to blockade yet
October 31 surges to 91%27%
Despite ongoing diplomatic talks between the US and Iran to halt hostilities and resume negotiations, no official announcement ending the naval blockade had been made by late July 2026, maintaining market uncertainty about the blockade's resolution.
Jul 30 2026
Diplomatic talks continue with no formal timeline for permanent blockade end
October 31 jumps to 70%6%
Reports indicated ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran with no formal timeline established for a permanent end to the blockade. This uncertainty affected market confidence, particularly for the October 31 resolution date, reflecting the complex geopolitical variables involved.
Jul 15 2026
US military launches strikes on Iranian missile sites amid blockade reinstatement
Following the reinstatement of the naval blockade, US Central Command launched multiple air and maritime strikes against Iranian military installations near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and reinforcing the blockade's enforcement.
Jul 14 2026
US military resumes naval blockade enforcement in Strait of Hormuz
August 7 jumps to 20%11%
Following President Trump's announcement, US Central Command officially resumed enforcement of the naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, accompanied by military strikes. This operational restart confirmed the blockade's continuation and influenced market sentiment.
Jul 14 2026
President Trump abandons plan to impose 20% transit fee on Strait of Hormuz shipping
August 7 surges to 35%15%
President Trump reversed his earlier plan to charge a 20% fee on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, opting instead for trade and investment deals with Gulf states. This policy shift reduced some market uncertainty about the blockade's economic impact.
Jul 14 2026
US Central Command begins enforcement of reinstated naval blockade on Iranian ports
August 31 jumps to 65%5%
Following President Trump's announcement, US Central Command officially began enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports and shipping, redirecting vessels and boarding ships to ensure compliance, signaling sustained military pressure on Iran.
Jul 14 2026
US Central Command resumes enforcement of naval blockade on Iranian ports
CENTCOM announced the resumption of the naval blockade enforcement on Iranian ports and coastal areas, following President Trump's directive, reinforcing the US military presence and control over maritime traffic to and from Iran.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran amid renewed hostilities
August 7 dips to 22%2%
On July 13, 2026, President Trump announced the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade of Iran following a breakdown in the ceasefire and renewed Iranian attacks. This announcement caused a drop in market confidence for near-term blockade end dates.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 7 jumps to 38%14%
President Trump publicly announced the reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and ships, ending the ceasefire and escalating tensions. This clear and official declaration directly impacted market prices, reflecting increased conflict risk.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces immediate reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
Following renewed Iranian attacks and fractured ceasefire, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, marking the end of the ceasefire and causing a sharp market reaction reflecting increased conflict risk.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 31 jumps to 60%13%
President Trump publicly announced the reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, following renewed Iranian attacks and the collapse of the ceasefire, marking a significant escalation in the conflict.
Jul 13 2026
US Central Command confirms naval blockade enforcement to begin July 14
October 31 surges to 79%15%
The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center announced the blockade enforcement on Iranian ports and coastal areas would begin at 20:00 GMT on July 14, reinforcing the official start of the blockade and impacting market expectations.
Jul 13 2026
Trump abandons plan to charge 20% toll for Strait of Hormuz passage
August 31 jumps to 57%10%
Following negotiations with Persian Gulf leaders, President Trump announced he would not impose the previously threatened 20% fee on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but maintained the naval blockade on Iranian vessels, affecting market sentiment.
Jul 13 2026
US military launches strikes on Iranian targets amid blockade reinstatement
December 31 rises to 89%4%
Alongside the blockade announcement, the US military conducted strikes on Iranian air defense and missile sites, escalating the conflict and reinforcing the blockade's enforcement, which influenced market prices upward.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
December 31 plunges to 48%15%
Following a breakdown in the ceasefire and renewed hostilities, President Trump announced the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ships, reversing the earlier lifting and causing market uncertainty and price drops.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
December 31 drops to 77%12%
On July 13, 2026, President Trump announced the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, reversing the earlier lifting. This announcement caused uncertainty and volatility in the market as the blockade was reimposed amid ongoing hostilities.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 31 drops to 38%9%
President Trump announced the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ships, marking the end of the ceasefire and increasing uncertainty about the blockade's future. This announcement caused a temporary dip in market prices as the blockade was reimposed.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of U.S. naval blockade on Iran and imposes 20% toll on cargo
August 13 surges to 52%24%
Following renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of the ceasefire, President Trump declared the reimposition of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, escalating tensions and causing a sharp market reaction.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces immediate reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 13 surges to 48%20%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and failed diplomatic talks, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, causing market uncertainty and a drop in confidence for the blockade ending soon.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of U.S. naval blockade on Iran
December 31 jumps to 56%9%
President Donald Trump publicly announced the reinstatement of the U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and ports, ending the ceasefire and signaling renewed conflict. This announcement directly impacted market expectations by confirming the blockade's continuation and escalation of tensions.
Jul 13 2026
US military launches strikes on Iranian missile sites coinciding with blockade reinstatement
August 31 jumps to 60%13%
The US Central Command launched multiple air and maritime strikes on Iranian military installations near the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with the formal reinstatement of the naval blockade, intensifying military conflict in the region.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran with 20% toll on cargo
President Trump announced the reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and ships, imposing a 20% toll on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, following renewed Iranian attacks on shipping and the collapse of the ceasefire agreement.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces immediate reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 7 surges to 42%18%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and fractured ceasefire, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, signaling a return to heightened tensions and ending the ceasefire. This announcement caused a significant market shift reflecting the blockade's reimposition.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, reinstated in mid-July 2026 after the collapse of a June ceasefire agreement, remains in active enforcement amid renewed clashes and reported attacks on commercial vessels. Primary drivers include ongoing US-Iran military exchanges, disputes over nuclear negotiations and sanctions relief, and Iranian actions affecting maritime traffic through the critical oil transit route. Recent developments center on CENTCOM operations redirecting ships and tit-for-tat strikes, with no confirmed diplomatic breakthroughs since the July reimposition. Trader assessments hinge on signals from the Trump administration regarding potential new talks, Iranian compliance on shipping access, or further escalation that could delay or accelerate any announcement ending the blockade. Key upcoming factors include any scheduled bilateral or multilateral discussions and real-time shifts in naval enforcement.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てウィンドウ
最終
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, reinstated in mid-July 2026 after the collapse of a June ceasefire agreement, remains in active enforcement amid renewed clashes and reported attacks on commercial vessels. Primary drivers include ongoing US-Iran military exchanges, disputes over nuclear negotiations and sanctions relief, and Iranian actions affecting maritime traffic through the critical oil transit route. Recent developments center on CENTCOM operations redirecting ships and tit-for-tat strikes, with no confirmed diplomatic breakthroughs since the July reimposition. Trader assessments hinge on signals from the Trump administration regarding potential new talks, Iranian compliance on shipping access, or further escalation that could delay or accelerate any announcement ending the blockade. Key upcoming factors include any scheduled bilateral or multilateral discussions and real-time shifts in naval enforcement.
Diplomatic talks continue amid uncertainty over permanent end to naval blockade
October 31 jumps to 70%6%
As of late July, the US and Iran engaged in ongoing diplomatic negotiations to halt hostilities and discuss the Strait of Hormuz, but no formal timeline for permanently ending the blockade was established, maintaining market uncertainty about the blockade's future.
Jul 31 2026
Trump cancels planned attack on Iran after agreement outline reached
August 31 rises to 40%4%
President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned military attack on Iran after Iran and regional neighbors requested a hold on strikes, indicating potential diplomatic progress and reducing immediate conflict risks.
Jul 31 2026
US Navy actively enforces Iran blockade with helicopter support, redirects vessels
August 31 drops to 34%6%
US Navy operations, including helicopter support aboard the USS Michael Murphy, continued enforcing the naval blockade against Iran, redirecting commercial vessels. This military activity indicated ongoing commitment to the blockade, causing market prices for near-term blockade end dates to decline.
Jul 31 2026
Reports indicate ongoing diplomatic negotiations but no formal end to blockade yet
October 31 surges to 91%27%
Despite ongoing diplomatic talks between the US and Iran to halt hostilities and resume negotiations, no official announcement ending the naval blockade had been made by late July 2026, maintaining market uncertainty about the blockade's resolution.
Jul 30 2026
Diplomatic talks continue with no formal timeline for permanent blockade end
October 31 jumps to 70%6%
Reports indicated ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran with no formal timeline established for a permanent end to the blockade. This uncertainty affected market confidence, particularly for the October 31 resolution date, reflecting the complex geopolitical variables involved.
Jul 15 2026
US military launches strikes on Iranian missile sites amid blockade reinstatement
Following the reinstatement of the naval blockade, US Central Command launched multiple air and maritime strikes against Iranian military installations near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and reinforcing the blockade's enforcement.
Jul 14 2026
US military resumes naval blockade enforcement in Strait of Hormuz
August 7 jumps to 20%11%
Following President Trump's announcement, US Central Command officially resumed enforcement of the naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, accompanied by military strikes. This operational restart confirmed the blockade's continuation and influenced market sentiment.
Jul 14 2026
President Trump abandons plan to impose 20% transit fee on Strait of Hormuz shipping
August 7 surges to 35%15%
President Trump reversed his earlier plan to charge a 20% fee on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, opting instead for trade and investment deals with Gulf states. This policy shift reduced some market uncertainty about the blockade's economic impact.
Jul 14 2026
US Central Command begins enforcement of reinstated naval blockade on Iranian ports
August 31 jumps to 65%5%
Following President Trump's announcement, US Central Command officially began enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports and shipping, redirecting vessels and boarding ships to ensure compliance, signaling sustained military pressure on Iran.
Jul 14 2026
US Central Command resumes enforcement of naval blockade on Iranian ports
CENTCOM announced the resumption of the naval blockade enforcement on Iranian ports and coastal areas, following President Trump's directive, reinforcing the US military presence and control over maritime traffic to and from Iran.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran amid renewed hostilities
August 7 dips to 22%2%
On July 13, 2026, President Trump announced the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade of Iran following a breakdown in the ceasefire and renewed Iranian attacks. This announcement caused a drop in market confidence for near-term blockade end dates.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 7 jumps to 38%14%
President Trump publicly announced the reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and ships, ending the ceasefire and escalating tensions. This clear and official declaration directly impacted market prices, reflecting increased conflict risk.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces immediate reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
Following renewed Iranian attacks and fractured ceasefire, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, marking the end of the ceasefire and causing a sharp market reaction reflecting increased conflict risk.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 31 jumps to 60%13%
President Trump publicly announced the reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, following renewed Iranian attacks and the collapse of the ceasefire, marking a significant escalation in the conflict.
Jul 13 2026
US Central Command confirms naval blockade enforcement to begin July 14
October 31 surges to 79%15%
The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center announced the blockade enforcement on Iranian ports and coastal areas would begin at 20:00 GMT on July 14, reinforcing the official start of the blockade and impacting market expectations.
Jul 13 2026
Trump abandons plan to charge 20% toll for Strait of Hormuz passage
August 31 jumps to 57%10%
Following negotiations with Persian Gulf leaders, President Trump announced he would not impose the previously threatened 20% fee on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but maintained the naval blockade on Iranian vessels, affecting market sentiment.
Jul 13 2026
US military launches strikes on Iranian targets amid blockade reinstatement
December 31 rises to 89%4%
Alongside the blockade announcement, the US military conducted strikes on Iranian air defense and missile sites, escalating the conflict and reinforcing the blockade's enforcement, which influenced market prices upward.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
December 31 plunges to 48%15%
Following a breakdown in the ceasefire and renewed hostilities, President Trump announced the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ships, reversing the earlier lifting and causing market uncertainty and price drops.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
December 31 drops to 77%12%
On July 13, 2026, President Trump announced the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, reversing the earlier lifting. This announcement caused uncertainty and volatility in the market as the blockade was reimposed amid ongoing hostilities.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 31 drops to 38%9%
President Trump announced the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ships, marking the end of the ceasefire and increasing uncertainty about the blockade's future. This announcement caused a temporary dip in market prices as the blockade was reimposed.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of U.S. naval blockade on Iran and imposes 20% toll on cargo
August 13 surges to 52%24%
Following renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of the ceasefire, President Trump declared the reimposition of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, escalating tensions and causing a sharp market reaction.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces immediate reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 13 surges to 48%20%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and failed diplomatic talks, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, causing market uncertainty and a drop in confidence for the blockade ending soon.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of U.S. naval blockade on Iran
December 31 jumps to 56%9%
President Donald Trump publicly announced the reinstatement of the U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and ports, ending the ceasefire and signaling renewed conflict. This announcement directly impacted market expectations by confirming the blockade's continuation and escalation of tensions.
Jul 13 2026
US military launches strikes on Iranian missile sites coinciding with blockade reinstatement
August 31 jumps to 60%13%
The US Central Command launched multiple air and maritime strikes on Iranian military installations near the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with the formal reinstatement of the naval blockade, intensifying military conflict in the region.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran with 20% toll on cargo
President Trump announced the reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and ships, imposing a 20% toll on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, following renewed Iranian attacks on shipping and the collapse of the ceasefire agreement.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces immediate reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 7 surges to 42%18%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and fractured ceasefire, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, signaling a return to heightened tensions and ending the ceasefire. This announcement caused a significant market shift reflecting the blockade's reimposition.
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