The NBA's proposed “3-2-1” draft lottery reform, which expands the lottery to 16 teams, flattens odds with three-ball, two-ball and one-ball groupings, and imposes a relegation penalty on the three worst records, stands as the primary driver behind the current trader consensus reflected in the 66 percent implied probability of a rules change. League officials presented the framework to general managers in late April, highlighting its intent to reduce tanking incentives while maintaining competitive balance for non-playoff squads. With a Board of Governors vote scheduled for May 28 and broad internal backing reported across recent meetings, the measure appears positioned for approval ahead of the 2027 draft. Recent lottery results, where several bottom teams received favorable jumps despite poor finishes, have reinforced commissioner Adam Silver’s push for adjustments that better align draft positioning with on-court effort.