Trader consensus favors former Rep. Mary Peltola at 62.5% implied probability to win Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, driven by a late-March Alaska Survey Research poll showing her leading incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan 52%-48% in the final ranked-choice voting round—a 9.8-point swing toward her since August 2025. Peltola's first-quarter fundraising dominance, raising nearly $9 million versus Sullivan's $2.1 million, signals strong campaign resources ahead of the August 18 all-party primary and November 3 general election under Alaska's ranked-choice system. Sullivan trails at 33.5% amid Peltola's gains with independents and rural voters, though his incumbency and GOP base provide a path to recovery if national trends shift. Minor candidates like Dustin Darden, Ann Diener, and Richard Grayson hold negligible shares.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트메리 펠톨라 63%
댄 설리반 34%
더스틴 다든 <1%
앤 디너 <1%
$301,634 거래량
$301,634 거래량
메리 펠톨라
63%
댄 설리반
34%
더스틴 다든
<1%
앤 디너
<1%
리처드 그레이슨
<1%
메리 펠톨라 63%
댄 설리반 34%
더스틴 다든 <1%
앤 디너 <1%
$301,634 거래량
$301,634 거래량
메리 펠톨라
63%
댄 설리반
34%
더스틴 다든
<1%
앤 디너
<1%
리처드 그레이슨
<1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors former Rep. Mary Peltola at 62.5% implied probability to win Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, driven by a late-March Alaska Survey Research poll showing her leading incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan 52%-48% in the final ranked-choice voting round—a 9.8-point swing toward her since August 2025. Peltola's first-quarter fundraising dominance, raising nearly $9 million versus Sullivan's $2.1 million, signals strong campaign resources ahead of the August 18 all-party primary and November 3 general election under Alaska's ranked-choice system. Sullivan trails at 33.5% amid Peltola's gains with independents and rural voters, though his incumbency and GOP base provide a path to recovery if national trends shift. Minor candidates like Dustin Darden, Ann Diener, and Richard Grayson hold negligible shares.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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