The May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion of a New Glenn booster at Cape Canaveral's sole active Launch Complex 36, which heavily damaged the pad with no injuries, forms the dominant driver behind the 88% market-implied probability against a 2026 liftoff. Official updates confirm repairs or an alternate site will require more than a year, pushing all planned missions—including Amazon Kuiper, Blue Moon landers, and Telesat payloads—into TBD status despite three prior flights (NG-1 in January 2025, NG-2 in November 2025, and NG-3 in April 2026). Blue Origin's CEO has stated a goal of returning to flight before year-end, yet the absence of an operational pad and ongoing facility assessments create substantial technical and schedule barriers that traders have priced into current odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
신규
신규
2026.12.31
예
신규
신규
2026.12.31
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.The May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion of a New Glenn booster at Cape Canaveral's sole active Launch Complex 36, which heavily damaged the pad with no injuries, forms the dominant driver behind the 88% market-implied probability against a 2026 liftoff. Official updates confirm repairs or an alternate site will require more than a year, pushing all planned missions—including Amazon Kuiper, Blue Moon landers, and Telesat payloads—into TBD status despite three prior flights (NG-1 in January 2025, NG-2 in November 2025, and NG-3 in April 2026). Blue Origin's CEO has stated a goal of returning to flight before year-end, yet the absence of an operational pad and ongoing facility assessments create substantial technical and schedule barriers that traders have priced into current odds.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
마켓 개설일: Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
거래량
$210종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.The May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion of a New Glenn booster at Cape Canaveral's sole active Launch Complex 36, which heavily damaged the pad with no injuries, forms the dominant driver behind the 88% market-implied probability against a 2026 liftoff. Official updates confirm repairs or an alternate site will require more than a year, pushing all planned missions—including Amazon Kuiper, Blue Moon landers, and Telesat payloads—into TBD status despite three prior flights (NG-1 in January 2025, NG-2 in November 2025, and NG-3 in April 2026). Blue Origin's CEO has stated a goal of returning to flight before year-end, yet the absence of an operational pad and ongoing facility assessments create substantial technical and schedule barriers that traders have priced into current odds.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
거래량
$210종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion of a New Glenn booster at Cape Canaveral's sole active Launch Complex 36, which heavily damaged the pad with no injuries, forms the dominant driver behind the 88% market-implied probability against a 2026 liftoff. Official updates confirm repairs or an alternate site will require more than a year, pushing all planned missions—including Amazon Kuiper, Blue Moon landers, and Telesat payloads—into TBD status despite three prior flights (NG-1 in January 2025, NG-2 in November 2025, and NG-3 in April 2026). Blue Origin's CEO has stated a goal of returning to flight before year-end, yet the absence of an operational pad and ongoing facility assessments create substantial technical and schedule barriers that traders have priced into current odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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