Trader consensus prices a blue wave—Democrats securing 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—at 86.5%, reflecting sustained Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polls averaging D+3.5 since early April, alongside historical midterm penalties for the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses. Recent catalysts include strong Democratic performances in April 7 special elections, such as topping the Georgia runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, and President Trump's approval dipping below 40% amid Iran military escalations and surging fuel prices. GOP Senate primary infighting, like Texas's Cornyn-Paxton clash, adds vulnerability, though upcoming primaries through summer could shift dynamics in battlegrounds like Michigan and North Carolina.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$31,918 거래량
$31,918 거래량
2026.11.30
예
$31,918 거래량
$31,918 거래량
2026.11.30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a blue wave—Democrats securing 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—at 86.5%, reflecting sustained Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polls averaging D+3.5 since early April, alongside historical midterm penalties for the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses. Recent catalysts include strong Democratic performances in April 7 special elections, such as topping the Georgia runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, and President Trump's approval dipping below 40% amid Iran military escalations and surging fuel prices. GOP Senate primary infighting, like Texas's Cornyn-Paxton clash, adds vulnerability, though upcoming primaries through summer could shift dynamics in battlegrounds like Michigan and North Carolina.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
마켓 개설일: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
거래량
$31,918종료일
2026.11.30마켓 개설일
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a blue wave—Democrats securing 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—at 86.5%, reflecting sustained Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polls averaging D+3.5 since early April, alongside historical midterm penalties for the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses. Recent catalysts include strong Democratic performances in April 7 special elections, such as topping the Georgia runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, and President Trump's approval dipping below 40% amid Iran military escalations and surging fuel prices. GOP Senate primary infighting, like Texas's Cornyn-Paxton clash, adds vulnerability, though upcoming primaries through summer could shift dynamics in battlegrounds like Michigan and North Carolina.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
거래량
$31,918종료일
2026.11.30마켓 개설일
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a blue wave—Democrats securing 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—at 86.5%, reflecting sustained Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polls averaging D+3.5 since early April, alongside historical midterm penalties for the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses. Recent catalysts include strong Democratic performances in April 7 special elections, such as topping the Georgia runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, and President Trump's approval dipping below 40% amid Iran military escalations and surging fuel prices. GOP Senate primary infighting, like Texas's Cornyn-Paxton clash, adds vulnerability, though upcoming primaries through summer could shift dynamics in battlegrounds like Michigan and North Carolina.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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