Trader sentiment on Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation reflects a hawkish turn following March's 0.88% monthly surge—above the 0.77% consensus—pushing the 12-month rate to 4.14% on gasoline (+4.59%) and food pressures amid Middle East oil shocks. The latest Banco Central Focus survey, released April 13, raised end-2026 forecasts to 4.71% from 4.36%, exceeding the 4.5% target ceiling for the first time this year. Polymarket's closely contested implied probabilities—5.00-5.49% at 38.6% edging 4.50-4.99% at 34.1%—highlight uncertainty over oil persistence, Copom's cautious Selic easing (now 14.75% post-25 basis point cut), and fiscal dynamics. Key swing factors include April IPCA data (mid-May release) and the next Copom meeting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5.00-5.49% 38.2%
4.50-4.99% 34.2%
4.00-4.49% 8.7%
5.50-5.99% 6.4%
$49,505 거래량
$49,505 거래량
2027.01.12
<3.00%
4%
3.00-3.49%
1%
3.50-3.99%
6%
4.00-4.49%
9%
4.50-4.99%
34%
5.00-5.49%
38%
5.50-5.99%
12%
6.00-6.49%
5%
6.50-6.99%
4%
7.00% 이상
9%
5.00-5.49% 38.2%
4.50-4.99% 34.2%
4.00-4.49% 8.7%
5.50-5.99% 6.4%
$49,505 거래량
$49,505 거래량
2027.01.12
<3.00%
$3,557 거래량
4%
3.00-3.49%
$4,145 거래량
1%
3.50-3.99%
$7,346 거래량
6%
4.00-4.49%
$5,824 거래량
9%
4.50-4.99%
$6,110 거래량
34%
5.00-5.49%
$5,475 거래량
38%
5.50-5.99%
$4,631 거래량
12%
6.00-6.49%
$4,440 거래량
5%
6.50-6.99%
$4,735 거래량
4%
7.00% 이상
$3,243 거래량
9%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader sentiment on Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation reflects a hawkish turn following March's 0.88% monthly surge—above the 0.77% consensus—pushing the 12-month rate to 4.14% on gasoline (+4.59%) and food pressures amid Middle East oil shocks. The latest Banco Central Focus survey, released April 13, raised end-2026 forecasts to 4.71% from 4.36%, exceeding the 4.5% target ceiling for the first time this year. Polymarket's closely contested implied probabilities—5.00-5.49% at 38.6% edging 4.50-4.99% at 34.1%—highlight uncertainty over oil persistence, Copom's cautious Selic easing (now 14.75% post-25 basis point cut), and fiscal dynamics. Key swing factors include April IPCA data (mid-May release) and the next Copom meeting.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
마켓 개설일: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
거래량
$49,505종료일
2027.01.12마켓 개설일
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader sentiment on Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation reflects a hawkish turn following March's 0.88% monthly surge—above the 0.77% consensus—pushing the 12-month rate to 4.14% on gasoline (+4.59%) and food pressures amid Middle East oil shocks. The latest Banco Central Focus survey, released April 13, raised end-2026 forecasts to 4.71% from 4.36%, exceeding the 4.5% target ceiling for the first time this year. Polymarket's closely contested implied probabilities—5.00-5.49% at 38.6% edging 4.50-4.99% at 34.1%—highlight uncertainty over oil persistence, Copom's cautious Selic easing (now 14.75% post-25 basis point cut), and fiscal dynamics. Key swing factors include April IPCA data (mid-May release) and the next Copom meeting.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
거래량
$49,505종료일
2027.01.12마켓 개설일
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation reflects a hawkish turn following March's 0.88% monthly surge—above the 0.77% consensus—pushing the 12-month rate to 4.14% on gasoline (+4.59%) and food pressures amid Middle East oil shocks. The latest Banco Central Focus survey, released April 13, raised end-2026 forecasts to 4.71% from 4.36%, exceeding the 4.5% target ceiling for the first time this year. Polymarket's closely contested implied probabilities—5.00-5.49% at 38.6% edging 4.50-4.99% at 34.1%—highlight uncertainty over oil persistence, Copom's cautious Selic easing (now 14.75% post-25 basis point cut), and fiscal dynamics. Key swing factors include April IPCA data (mid-May release) and the next Copom meeting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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