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선거·프라이머리

CA-04 Primary Winners

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선거·프라이머리

CA-04 Primary Winners

$20,463 거래량

2026.06.02
Polymarket

$20,463 거래량

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,502 거래량

98%

Eric Jones

$4,011 거래량

96%

Trevor Merrell

$6,288 거래량

15%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 거래량

8%

Mandy Ghusar

$728 거래량

6%

Sharon Brown

$1,605 거래량

6%

Laurie MacKenzie

$710 거래량

5%

John Wesley Tyler

$618 거래량

45%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus prices incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson at 98% and challenger Eric Jones at 96% to advance from California's June 2 top-two primary in the safely Democratic CA-04 (D+17 PVI), driven by their fundraising dominance—Jones with $2.6 million receipts and Thompson $2 million—as a fragmented Republican field of six candidates splits opposition votes. Recent Blue Dog Coalition reservations of nearly $700,000 in ads support Thompson amid his rare primary contest from progressive Jones, endorsed by Our Revolution, while the Democratic Party of California backs the veteran lawmaker. Post-2025 redistricting via Proposition 50 slightly narrowed the district's Democratic tilt but preserved its lean; ballots mail May 4, with early voting through June 1.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
거래량
$20,463
종료일
2026.06.02
마켓 개설일
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus prices incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson at 98% and challenger Eric Jones at 96% to advance from California's June 2 top-two primary in the safely Democratic CA-04 (D+17 PVI), driven by their fundraising dominance—Jones with $2.6 million receipts and Thompson $2 million—as a fragmented Republican field of six candidates splits opposition votes. Recent Blue Dog Coalition reservations of nearly $700,000 in ads support Thompson amid his rare primary contest from progressive Jones, endorsed by Our Revolution, while the Democratic Party of California backs the veteran lawmaker. Post-2025 redistricting via Proposition 50 slightly narrowed the district's Democratic tilt but preserved its lean; ballots mail May 4, with early voting through June 1.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
거래량
$20,463
종료일
2026.06.02
마켓 개설일
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

외부 링크에 주의하세요.

자주 묻는 질문

"CA-04 Primary Winners"은 8개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 98%의 "Mike Thompson"이며, 이어서 96%의 "Eric Jones"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 98¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 98%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "CA-04 Primary Winners"은 총 $20.5K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Feb 26, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"CA-04 Primary Winners"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 8개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"CA-04 Primary Winners"의 현재 유력 후보는 98%의 "Mike Thompson"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 98%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 96%의 "Eric Jones"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"CA-04 Primary Winners"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.