In California's 38th Congressional District, a newly drawn safe Democratic seat with a D+12 partisan lean where Vice President Kamala Harris won by 12 points, trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 93.5% ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. The open race features a crowded Democratic field—former U.S. Rep. and Labor Secretary Hilda Solis (with state Democratic Party endorsement and dominant fundraising at $398,000 cash on hand), Pico Rivera Mayor Pro Tem Monica Sánchez (backed by retiring Rep. Linda Sánchez), and councilor Erik Lutz—against lone Republican psychologist Pedro Casas. Cook Political rates it Solid Democratic, reflecting historical trends and weak GOP infrastructure in this Latino-majority Southeast Los Angeles County district. A Republican upset would require Casas unexpectedly topping the primary ballot or a late scandal derailing both advancing Democrats, though district math and turnout patterns make this improbable barring extraordinary developments like legal challenges or health issues before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$47,333 거래량
$47,333 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$47,333 거래량
$47,333 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$21,509 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$25,825 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In California's 38th Congressional District, a newly drawn safe Democratic seat with a D+12 partisan lean where Vice President Kamala Harris won by 12 points, trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 93.5% ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. The open race features a crowded Democratic field—former U.S. Rep. and Labor Secretary Hilda Solis (with state Democratic Party endorsement and dominant fundraising at $398,000 cash on hand), Pico Rivera Mayor Pro Tem Monica Sánchez (backed by retiring Rep. Linda Sánchez), and councilor Erik Lutz—against lone Republican psychologist Pedro Casas. Cook Political rates it Solid Democratic, reflecting historical trends and weak GOP infrastructure in this Latino-majority Southeast Los Angeles County district. A Republican upset would require Casas unexpectedly topping the primary ballot or a late scandal derailing both advancing Democrats, though district math and turnout patterns make this improbable barring extraordinary developments like legal challenges or health issues before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
거래량
$47,333종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In California's 38th Congressional District, a newly drawn safe Democratic seat with a D+12 partisan lean where Vice President Kamala Harris won by 12 points, trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 93.5% ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. The open race features a crowded Democratic field—former U.S. Rep. and Labor Secretary Hilda Solis (with state Democratic Party endorsement and dominant fundraising at $398,000 cash on hand), Pico Rivera Mayor Pro Tem Monica Sánchez (backed by retiring Rep. Linda Sánchez), and councilor Erik Lutz—against lone Republican psychologist Pedro Casas. Cook Political rates it Solid Democratic, reflecting historical trends and weak GOP infrastructure in this Latino-majority Southeast Los Angeles County district. A Republican upset would require Casas unexpectedly topping the primary ballot or a late scandal derailing both advancing Democrats, though district math and turnout patterns make this improbable barring extraordinary developments like legal challenges or health issues before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$47,333종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In California's 38th Congressional District, a newly drawn safe Democratic seat with a D+12 partisan lean where Vice President Kamala Harris won by 12 points, trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 93.5% ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. The open race features a crowded Democratic field—former U.S. Rep. and Labor Secretary Hilda Solis (with state Democratic Party endorsement and dominant fundraising at $398,000 cash on hand), Pico Rivera Mayor Pro Tem Monica Sánchez (backed by retiring Rep. Linda Sánchez), and councilor Erik Lutz—against lone Republican psychologist Pedro Casas. Cook Political rates it Solid Democratic, reflecting historical trends and weak GOP infrastructure in this Latino-majority Southeast Los Angeles County district. A Republican upset would require Casas unexpectedly topping the primary ballot or a late scandal derailing both advancing Democrats, though district math and turnout patterns make this improbable barring extraordinary developments like legal challenges or health issues before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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