Canada's federal government has sharply reduced 2026 temporary resident targets to 385,000 from prior highs near 674,000, with permanent resident admissions stabilized at 380,000 annually. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate this will produce flat overall population growth or a marginal decline for the second consecutive year, as net outflows of non-permanent residents offset limited natural increase from births minus deaths. Trader consensus at 52 percent for a decrease reflects these policy adjustments aimed at easing housing and service pressures, though actual outcomes hinge on precise admission volumes, retention rates, and any supplemental provincial or humanitarian inflows within the calendar year.