**Cuba's government faces acute economic distress from nationwide blackouts and shortages since March 2026, sparking protests and cacerolazos that prompted arrests and crackdowns, yet traders price a 61% chance the regime endures through year-end.** President Miguel Díaz-Canel's defiant April 16 speech on the Bay of Pigs anniversary underscored military readiness against U.S. threats amid tightened Trump administration sanctions and Venezuelan oil disruptions, reinforcing institutional control without signs of internal fracture. Lacking organized opposition or elite defections—hallmarks of past collapses like Venezuela's—the Cuban leadership's repression tactics and historical resilience sustain trader consensus on stability, though escalating U.S. pressure or further unrest could shift odds before December 31 resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$160,897 거래량
$160,897 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$160,897 거래량
$160,897 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Cuba's government faces acute economic distress from nationwide blackouts and shortages since March 2026, sparking protests and cacerolazos that prompted arrests and crackdowns, yet traders price a 61% chance the regime endures through year-end.** President Miguel Díaz-Canel's defiant April 16 speech on the Bay of Pigs anniversary underscored military readiness against U.S. threats amid tightened Trump administration sanctions and Venezuelan oil disruptions, reinforcing institutional control without signs of internal fracture. Lacking organized opposition or elite defections—hallmarks of past collapses like Venezuela's—the Cuban leadership's repression tactics and historical resilience sustain trader consensus on stability, though escalating U.S. pressure or further unrest could shift odds before December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
거래량
$160,897종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Cuba's government faces acute economic distress from nationwide blackouts and shortages since March 2026, sparking protests and cacerolazos that prompted arrests and crackdowns, yet traders price a 61% chance the regime endures through year-end.** President Miguel Díaz-Canel's defiant April 16 speech on the Bay of Pigs anniversary underscored military readiness against U.S. threats amid tightened Trump administration sanctions and Venezuelan oil disruptions, reinforcing institutional control without signs of internal fracture. Lacking organized opposition or elite defections—hallmarks of past collapses like Venezuela's—the Cuban leadership's repression tactics and historical resilience sustain trader consensus on stability, though escalating U.S. pressure or further unrest could shift odds before December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$160,897종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Cuba's government faces acute economic distress from nationwide blackouts and shortages since March 2026, sparking protests and cacerolazos that prompted arrests and crackdowns, yet traders price a 61% chance the regime endures through year-end.** President Miguel Díaz-Canel's defiant April 16 speech on the Bay of Pigs anniversary underscored military readiness against U.S. threats amid tightened Trump administration sanctions and Venezuelan oil disruptions, reinforcing institutional control without signs of internal fracture. Lacking organized opposition or elite defections—hallmarks of past collapses like Venezuela's—the Cuban leadership's repression tactics and historical resilience sustain trader consensus on stability, though escalating U.S. pressure or further unrest could shift odds before December 31 resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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