**Diddy's ongoing federal sentence and projected 2028 release date anchor the strong "No" odds at 80.3%.** Following his October 2025 conviction on two counts of transportation to engage in prostitution (after acquittal on racketeering and sex-trafficking charges), Sean Combs received a 50-month term plus a $500,000 fine and five years of supervised release. He has remained in custody since his September 2024 arrest, serving time at the low-security FCI Fort Dix in New Jersey since late 2025. Bureau of Prisons records consistently project his release in April 2028 (with minor adjustments tied to RDAP participation for potential credits or isolated infractions), placing any exit well beyond 2026. Key drivers include the sentence length, credit for roughly 13 months already served pre-sentencing, and the low likelihood of swift reversal on appeal. A federal appeals hearing in April 2026 sought acquittal or resentencing, but prosecutors have described the arguments as meritless, and historical patterns for similar cases show limited near-term success. Ongoing civil suits and separate state probes add scrutiny but do not alter his current incarceration status. Traders view the combination of a firm custodial term, slow appeals process, and absence of bail or clemency developments as creating a high barrier to any 2026 release, despite the inherent uncertainties in litigation outcomes. Upcoming catalysts remain limited to further appeal rulings or program-related date tweaks, none of which are expected to shift the timeline into 2026.