Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz holds a 63.5% implied probability as the trader consensus favorite in the FL-23 Democratic primary on August 18, buoyed by superior fundraising—over $1 million cash on hand at year-end 2025—and incumbency advantages in the closed primary system limited to registered Democrats. Challenger Oliver Adams Larkin commands 34.5% following a March poll showing him ahead 49%-36% among informed likely voters, fueled by progressive discontent over Moskowitz's pro-Israel lobbying ties and AIPAC funding amid calls to reduce military aid (63% support in the survey). Larkin's national Democratic Socialists of America endorsement on March 31 has sustained momentum, though traders prioritize Moskowitz's name recognition and establishment backing in this northern Broward-Palm Beach battleground.