Appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody holds consistent leads over Democrat Alexander Vindman in recent polls, including Emerson College's April surveys showing her ahead 46%-38% and 47%-36%, alongside a University of North Florida poll at 45%-38% and an April 13 Edge poll at 43%-42%, driving trader consensus to price Republicans at 78% implied probability. Florida's GOP registration advantage exceeding 1 million voters, the state's rightward shift following Donald Trump's 2024 landslide, and Moody's incumbency boost from Gov. Ron DeSantis's appointment after Marco Rubio's resignation outweigh Democratic fundraising gains reported April 15. With filing deadline April 24, primaries August 18, and general election November 3, national midterm dynamics under a Republican presidency further solidify the Republican edge in this battleground state.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$33,688 거래량
$33,688 거래량
공화당
78%
민주당
15%
$33,688 거래량
$33,688 거래량
공화당
$17,638 거래량
78%
민주당
$16,051 거래량
15%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody holds consistent leads over Democrat Alexander Vindman in recent polls, including Emerson College's April surveys showing her ahead 46%-38% and 47%-36%, alongside a University of North Florida poll at 45%-38% and an April 13 Edge poll at 43%-42%, driving trader consensus to price Republicans at 78% implied probability. Florida's GOP registration advantage exceeding 1 million voters, the state's rightward shift following Donald Trump's 2024 landslide, and Moody's incumbency boost from Gov. Ron DeSantis's appointment after Marco Rubio's resignation outweigh Democratic fundraising gains reported April 15. With filing deadline April 24, primaries August 18, and general election November 3, national midterm dynamics under a Republican presidency further solidify the Republican edge in this battleground state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
거래량
$33,688마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody holds consistent leads over Democrat Alexander Vindman in recent polls, including Emerson College's April surveys showing her ahead 46%-38% and 47%-36%, alongside a University of North Florida poll at 45%-38% and an April 13 Edge poll at 43%-42%, driving trader consensus to price Republicans at 78% implied probability. Florida's GOP registration advantage exceeding 1 million voters, the state's rightward shift following Donald Trump's 2024 landslide, and Moody's incumbency boost from Gov. Ron DeSantis's appointment after Marco Rubio's resignation outweigh Democratic fundraising gains reported April 15. With filing deadline April 24, primaries August 18, and general election November 3, national midterm dynamics under a Republican presidency further solidify the Republican edge in this battleground state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$33,688마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody holds consistent leads over Democrat Alexander Vindman in recent polls, including Emerson College's April surveys showing her ahead 46%-38% and 47%-36%, alongside a University of North Florida poll at 45%-38% and an April 13 Edge poll at 43%-42%, driving trader consensus to price Republicans at 78% implied probability. Florida's GOP registration advantage exceeding 1 million voters, the state's rightward shift following Donald Trump's 2024 landslide, and Moody's incumbency boost from Gov. Ron DeSantis's appointment after Marco Rubio's resignation outweigh Democratic fundraising gains reported April 15. With filing deadline April 24, primaries August 18, and general election November 3, national midterm dynamics under a Republican presidency further solidify the Republican edge in this battleground state.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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