Trader consensus on a 95.9% implied probability of no military engagement between Greece and Turkey by June 30 reflects sustained diplomatic de-escalation, anchored by the February 11, 2026, Ankara summit where Presidents Erdoğan and Prime Minister Mitsotakis reaffirmed commitments to resolve Aegean maritime disputes, migration, and borders through dialogue rather than force. As fellow NATO allies, both nations face Article 5 risks from escalation, reinforced by routine confidence-building measures amid routine airspace incidents that have not led to kinetic clashes in recent months. Strong bilateral trade targets—aiming for $10 billion—and shared economic interests in tourism further incentivize restraint. Realistic shift scenarios include an accidental Aegean shootdown, Cyprus flare-up, or spillover from regional conflicts like the Iran war, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$486,616 거래량
$486,616 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$486,616 거래량
$486,616 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on a 95.9% implied probability of no military engagement between Greece and Turkey by June 30 reflects sustained diplomatic de-escalation, anchored by the February 11, 2026, Ankara summit where Presidents Erdoğan and Prime Minister Mitsotakis reaffirmed commitments to resolve Aegean maritime disputes, migration, and borders through dialogue rather than force. As fellow NATO allies, both nations face Article 5 risks from escalation, reinforced by routine confidence-building measures amid routine airspace incidents that have not led to kinetic clashes in recent months. Strong bilateral trade targets—aiming for $10 billion—and shared economic interests in tourism further incentivize restraint. Realistic shift scenarios include an accidental Aegean shootdown, Cyprus flare-up, or spillover from regional conflicts like the Iran war, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Dec 22, 2025, 3:03 PM ET
거래량
$486,616종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 22, 2025, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on a 95.9% implied probability of no military engagement between Greece and Turkey by June 30 reflects sustained diplomatic de-escalation, anchored by the February 11, 2026, Ankara summit where Presidents Erdoğan and Prime Minister Mitsotakis reaffirmed commitments to resolve Aegean maritime disputes, migration, and borders through dialogue rather than force. As fellow NATO allies, both nations face Article 5 risks from escalation, reinforced by routine confidence-building measures amid routine airspace incidents that have not led to kinetic clashes in recent months. Strong bilateral trade targets—aiming for $10 billion—and shared economic interests in tourism further incentivize restraint. Realistic shift scenarios include an accidental Aegean shootdown, Cyprus flare-up, or spillover from regional conflicts like the Iran war, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$486,616종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 22, 2025, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 95.9% implied probability of no military engagement between Greece and Turkey by June 30 reflects sustained diplomatic de-escalation, anchored by the February 11, 2026, Ankara summit where Presidents Erdoğan and Prime Minister Mitsotakis reaffirmed commitments to resolve Aegean maritime disputes, migration, and borders through dialogue rather than force. As fellow NATO allies, both nations face Article 5 risks from escalation, reinforced by routine confidence-building measures amid routine airspace incidents that have not led to kinetic clashes in recent months. Strong bilateral trade targets—aiming for $10 billion—and shared economic interests in tourism further incentivize restraint. Realistic shift scenarios include an accidental Aegean shootdown, Cyprus flare-up, or spillover from regional conflicts like the Iran war, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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