Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's March 17 primary win, backed by Gov. JB Pritzker despite Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's fundraising edge, solidified Democrats' commanding position in the open-seat contest against former GOP chair Don Tracy, driving trader consensus to 90.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Illinois' D+7 partisan lean, Democratic dominance in Chicago and collar counties powering consistent double-digit victories, and no Republican Senate win since 1998 underpin this pricing, with no post-primary polls yet challenging the safe Democratic rating from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Late-breaking scandals, a national GOP midterm wave, or depressed urban turnout could shift odds before November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$20,714 거래량
$20,714 거래량
2026.11.03
Democrat
91%
Republican
7%
$20,714 거래량
$20,714 거래량
2026.11.03
Democrat
$10,063 거래량
91%
Republican
$10,651 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's March 17 primary win, backed by Gov. JB Pritzker despite Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's fundraising edge, solidified Democrats' commanding position in the open-seat contest against former GOP chair Don Tracy, driving trader consensus to 90.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Illinois' D+7 partisan lean, Democratic dominance in Chicago and collar counties powering consistent double-digit victories, and no Republican Senate win since 1998 underpin this pricing, with no post-primary polls yet challenging the safe Democratic rating from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Late-breaking scandals, a national GOP midterm wave, or depressed urban turnout could shift odds before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
거래량
$20,714종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's March 17 primary win, backed by Gov. JB Pritzker despite Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's fundraising edge, solidified Democrats' commanding position in the open-seat contest against former GOP chair Don Tracy, driving trader consensus to 90.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Illinois' D+7 partisan lean, Democratic dominance in Chicago and collar counties powering consistent double-digit victories, and no Republican Senate win since 1998 underpin this pricing, with no post-primary polls yet challenging the safe Democratic rating from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Late-breaking scandals, a national GOP midterm wave, or depressed urban turnout could shift odds before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$20,714종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's March 17 primary win, backed by Gov. JB Pritzker despite Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's fundraising edge, solidified Democrats' commanding position in the open-seat contest against former GOP chair Don Tracy, driving trader consensus to 90.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Illinois' D+7 partisan lean, Democratic dominance in Chicago and collar counties powering consistent double-digit victories, and no Republican Senate win since 1998 underpin this pricing, with no post-primary polls yet challenging the safe Democratic rating from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Late-breaking scandals, a national GOP midterm wave, or depressed urban turnout could shift odds before November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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