Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Major solar storm by April 30?
Major solar storm by April 30?
$13,998 거래량
$13,998 거래량
2026.04.30
$13,998 거래량
$13,998 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
마켓 개설일: Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
거래량
$13,998종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
거래량
$13,998종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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