Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes, but has made no public appearances amid reports of severe injuries from the attacks, including facial disfigurement and leg wounds. Persistent unverified rumors of his evacuation to Moscow for surgery—denied by Iranian officials like Ambassador Kazem Jalali—have fueled speculation, yet trader consensus reflects low probabilities for near-term departure due to lack of evidence and his critical role amid ongoing airstrikes, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and regime consolidation efforts. Recent analysis, including a former US official's April 15 assessment questioning his effective control, underscores leadership uncertainty, with potential market movers including a confirmed public sighting or further military escalations before key dates like April 30 or June 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$877,981 거래량
2026.04.30
4월 30일
2%
5월 31일
6%
6월 30일
9%
$877,981 거래량
4월 30일
$194,760 거래량
2%
5월 31일
$12,281 거래량
6%
6월 30일
$8,464 거래량
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes, but has made no public appearances amid reports of severe injuries from the attacks, including facial disfigurement and leg wounds. Persistent unverified rumors of his evacuation to Moscow for surgery—denied by Iranian officials like Ambassador Kazem Jalali—have fueled speculation, yet trader consensus reflects low probabilities for near-term departure due to lack of evidence and his critical role amid ongoing airstrikes, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and regime consolidation efforts. Recent analysis, including a former US official's April 15 assessment questioning his effective control, underscores leadership uncertainty, with potential market movers including a confirmed public sighting or further military escalations before key dates like April 30 or June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
거래량
$877,981종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes, but has made no public appearances amid reports of severe injuries from the attacks, including facial disfigurement and leg wounds. Persistent unverified rumors of his evacuation to Moscow for surgery—denied by Iranian officials like Ambassador Kazem Jalali—have fueled speculation, yet trader consensus reflects low probabilities for near-term departure due to lack of evidence and his critical role amid ongoing airstrikes, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and regime consolidation efforts. Recent analysis, including a former US official's April 15 assessment questioning his effective control, underscores leadership uncertainty, with potential market movers including a confirmed public sighting or further military escalations before key dates like April 30 or June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$877,981종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli airstrikes, but has made no public appearances amid reports of severe injuries from the attacks, including facial disfigurement and leg wounds. Persistent unverified rumors of his evacuation to Moscow for surgery—denied by Iranian officials like Ambassador Kazem Jalali—have fueled speculation, yet trader consensus reflects low probabilities for near-term departure due to lack of evidence and his critical role amid ongoing airstrikes, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and regime consolidation efforts. Recent analysis, including a former US official's April 15 assessment questioning his effective control, underscores leadership uncertainty, with potential market movers including a confirmed public sighting or further military escalations before key dates like April 30 or June 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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