Polymarket traders show razor-thin divergence on Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with 51.5% implied probability for below $23,500 edging out 46.7% for above $36,000, reflecting split sentiment on tech valuations amid persistent high interest rates. The index's recent 8% rebound from April lows near 24,100 to 26,200—fueled by AI capex optimism and solid Q1 earnings beats from Magnificent Seven names—clashes with no Federal Reserve rate cuts priced for 2026, sticky inflation (March CPI at 2.7%), and rotation into value sectors signaling correction risks. Key swing factors include May FOMC dot plot revisions, April nonfarm payrolls, and Q2 revenue trends; a break below 24,300 support could accelerate bearish bets, while sustained 26,000 resistance breach favors bulls.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$23,500-$25,000 80%
$30,500-$33,000 43%
$25,000-$26,500 41%
$26,500-$28,500 41%
신규
신규
2026.12.31
<$23,500
53%
$23,500-$25,000
80%
$25,000-$26,500
41%
$26,500-$28,500
41%
$28,500-$30,500
-
$30,500-$33,000
43%
$33,000-$36,000
41%
>$36,000
44%
$23,500-$25,000 80%
$30,500-$33,000 43%
$25,000-$26,500 41%
$26,500-$28,500 41%
신규
신규
2026.12.31
<$23,500
$0 거래량
53%
$23,500-$25,000
$0 거래량
80%
$25,000-$26,500
$0 거래량
41%
$26,500-$28,500
$0 거래량
41%
$28,500-$30,500
$0 거래량
-
$30,500-$33,000
$0 거래량
43%
$33,000-$36,000
$0 거래량
41%
>$36,000
$42 거래량
44%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders show razor-thin divergence on Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with 51.5% implied probability for below $23,500 edging out 46.7% for above $36,000, reflecting split sentiment on tech valuations amid persistent high interest rates. The index's recent 8% rebound from April lows near 24,100 to 26,200—fueled by AI capex optimism and solid Q1 earnings beats from Magnificent Seven names—clashes with no Federal Reserve rate cuts priced for 2026, sticky inflation (March CPI at 2.7%), and rotation into value sectors signaling correction risks. Key swing factors include May FOMC dot plot revisions, April nonfarm payrolls, and Q2 revenue trends; a break below 24,300 support could accelerate bearish bets, while sustained 26,000 resistance breach favors bulls.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
거래량
$42종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders show razor-thin divergence on Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with 51.5% implied probability for below $23,500 edging out 46.7% for above $36,000, reflecting split sentiment on tech valuations amid persistent high interest rates. The index's recent 8% rebound from April lows near 24,100 to 26,200—fueled by AI capex optimism and solid Q1 earnings beats from Magnificent Seven names—clashes with no Federal Reserve rate cuts priced for 2026, sticky inflation (March CPI at 2.7%), and rotation into value sectors signaling correction risks. Key swing factors include May FOMC dot plot revisions, April nonfarm payrolls, and Q2 revenue trends; a break below 24,300 support could accelerate bearish bets, while sustained 26,000 resistance breach favors bulls.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
거래량
$42종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETPolymarket traders show razor-thin divergence on Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with 51.5% implied probability for below $23,500 edging out 46.7% for above $36,000, reflecting split sentiment on tech valuations amid persistent high interest rates. The index's recent 8% rebound from April lows near 24,100 to 26,200—fueled by AI capex optimism and solid Q1 earnings beats from Magnificent Seven names—clashes with no Federal Reserve rate cuts priced for 2026, sticky inflation (March CPI at 2.7%), and rotation into value sectors signaling correction risks. Key swing factors include May FOMC dot plot revisions, April nonfarm payrolls, and Q2 revenue trends; a break below 24,300 support could accelerate bearish bets, while sustained 26,000 resistance breach favors bulls.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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