Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association exchanged sharply divergent opening proposals in late May 2026, with owners seeking a hard salary cap near $245 million plus a floor and 50-50 revenue split while the union proposed raising the luxury-tax threshold to $300 million, boosting minimum salaries, and adding competitive-integrity taxes on low-spending clubs. These fundamental differences on payroll structure and revenue sharing have created an early impasse, consistent with patterns in prior cycles that often require extended bargaining before the December 1 expiration. Trader consensus favoring no agreement by the deadline reflects the limited time remaining and the absence of meaningful movement since talks formally began.