Trader consensus favors Stefany Shaheen at 53.5% implied probability to win the New Hampshire 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on September 8, driven by her lead in the latest University of New Hampshire poll from January 21 showing 33% support among likely voters, well ahead of Maura Sullivan's 8% and ahead of recent trends where her share rose from 23-29% in prior surveys. Shaheen's strong first-quarter 2026 fundraising haul exceeding $500,000 boosted her cash on hand above $1.1 million, closing the gap with Sullivan's prior dominance. Sullivan holds second at 29.5% on her overall $1.9 million raised and veteran credentials, while Carleigh Beriont's 10.5% reflects Seacoast support amid a fragmented seven-candidate field with 39% undecided; Heath Howard trails at 2.6% despite 10% in the poll. A recent candidate forum highlighted base turnout debates, with five months until the vote.