Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, anchored by the S&P 500's avoidance of Level 1 (7% intraday drop) thresholds despite 2026 volatility. A stormy March saw the index dip over 7% monthly to below 6400—its lowest since September 2025—but daily moves remained contained, preventing halts. The VIX spiked above 21 in early April before easing to 18.18 as of April 15, reflecting subdued fear amid a 6% one-month rebound to near 6880. Historical rarity post-2020, resilient economic data, and Fed easing expectations sustain this positioning, with Q2 earnings and May FOMC as pivotal catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$43,785 거래량
$43,785 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$43,785 거래량
$43,785 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, anchored by the S&P 500's avoidance of Level 1 (7% intraday drop) thresholds despite 2026 volatility. A stormy March saw the index dip over 7% monthly to below 6400—its lowest since September 2025—but daily moves remained contained, preventing halts. The VIX spiked above 21 in early April before easing to 18.18 as of April 15, reflecting subdued fear amid a 6% one-month rebound to near 6880. Historical rarity post-2020, resilient economic data, and Fed easing expectations sustain this positioning, with Q2 earnings and May FOMC as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
거래량
$43,785종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, anchored by the S&P 500's avoidance of Level 1 (7% intraday drop) thresholds despite 2026 volatility. A stormy March saw the index dip over 7% monthly to below 6400—its lowest since September 2025—but daily moves remained contained, preventing halts. The VIX spiked above 21 in early April before easing to 18.18 as of April 15, reflecting subdued fear amid a 6% one-month rebound to near 6880. Historical rarity post-2020, resilient economic data, and Fed easing expectations sustain this positioning, with Q2 earnings and May FOMC as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$43,785종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, anchored by the S&P 500's avoidance of Level 1 (7% intraday drop) thresholds despite 2026 volatility. A stormy March saw the index dip over 7% monthly to below 6400—its lowest since September 2025—but daily moves remained contained, preventing halts. The VIX spiked above 21 in early April before easing to 18.18 as of April 15, reflecting subdued fear amid a 6% one-month rebound to near 6880. Historical rarity post-2020, resilient economic data, and Fed easing expectations sustain this positioning, with Q2 earnings and May FOMC as pivotal catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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