Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience amid the United Arab Emirates' shock exit announcement effective May 1, which strips the cartel of a key producer but leaves Saudi Arabia firmly in control of quotas and agenda. Recent OPEC+ meetings in March reaffirmed production adjustments by core members—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait—to extend cuts through year-end, bolstering market stability amid Iran-related Strait of Hormuz disruptions that have spiked oil above $100 per barrel. While the UAE departure introduces supply uncertainty and potential for further fractures, historical precedents of internal tensions without disbandment underpin the strong "No" pricing, with traders eyeing post-exit coordination as the next catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience amid the United Arab Emirates' shock exit announcement effective May 1, which strips the cartel of a key producer but leaves Saudi Arabia firmly in control of quotas and agenda. Recent OPEC+ meetings in March reaffirmed production adjustments by core members—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait—to extend cuts through year-end, bolstering market stability amid Iran-related Strait of Hormuz disruptions that have spiked oil above $100 per barrel. While the UAE departure introduces supply uncertainty and potential for further fractures, historical precedents of internal tensions without disbandment underpin the strong "No" pricing, with traders eyeing post-exit coordination as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
거래량
$8,451종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience amid the United Arab Emirates' shock exit announcement effective May 1, which strips the cartel of a key producer but leaves Saudi Arabia firmly in control of quotas and agenda. Recent OPEC+ meetings in March reaffirmed production adjustments by core members—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait—to extend cuts through year-end, bolstering market stability amid Iran-related Strait of Hormuz disruptions that have spiked oil above $100 per barrel. While the UAE departure introduces supply uncertainty and potential for further fractures, historical precedents of internal tensions without disbandment underpin the strong "No" pricing, with traders eyeing post-exit coordination as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$8,451종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience amid the United Arab Emirates' shock exit announcement effective May 1, which strips the cartel of a key producer but leaves Saudi Arabia firmly in control of quotas and agenda. Recent OPEC+ meetings in March reaffirmed production adjustments by core members—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait—to extend cuts through year-end, bolstering market stability amid Iran-related Strait of Hormuz disruptions that have spiked oil above $100 per barrel. While the UAE departure introduces supply uncertainty and potential for further fractures, historical precedents of internal tensions without disbandment underpin the strong "No" pricing, with traders eyeing post-exit coordination as the next catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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