Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley advanced from Oregon’s May 19 primary with 93 percent of the vote against minimal opposition, while Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith secured his party’s nomination in a crowded field. Oregon’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly eight points and recent statewide results, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic general-election victory on November 3. Merkley’s long tenure since 2008 and the absence of competitive polling shifts reinforce this positioning. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented statewide swing, a major unforeseen development such as a health or ethics event affecting the incumbent, or an extraordinary national political realignment within the next five months.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democrat
93%
Republican
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democrat
$3,028 거래량
93%
Republican
$1,177 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley advanced from Oregon’s May 19 primary with 93 percent of the vote against minimal opposition, while Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith secured his party’s nomination in a crowded field. Oregon’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly eight points and recent statewide results, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic general-election victory on November 3. Merkley’s long tenure since 2008 and the absence of competitive polling shifts reinforce this positioning. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented statewide swing, a major unforeseen development such as a health or ethics event affecting the incumbent, or an extraordinary national political realignment within the next five months.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
거래량
$4,205종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley advanced from Oregon’s May 19 primary with 93 percent of the vote against minimal opposition, while Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith secured his party’s nomination in a crowded field. Oregon’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly eight points and recent statewide results, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic general-election victory on November 3. Merkley’s long tenure since 2008 and the absence of competitive polling shifts reinforce this positioning. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented statewide swing, a major unforeseen development such as a health or ethics event affecting the incumbent, or an extraordinary national political realignment within the next five months.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$4,205종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley advanced from Oregon’s May 19 primary with 93 percent of the vote against minimal opposition, while Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith secured his party’s nomination in a crowded field. Oregon’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly eight points and recent statewide results, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic general-election victory on November 3. Merkley’s long tenure since 2008 and the absence of competitive polling shifts reinforce this positioning. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented statewide swing, a major unforeseen development such as a health or ethics event affecting the incumbent, or an extraordinary national political realignment within the next five months.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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