Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley, seeking a fourth term, commands trader consensus at 93% implied probability for victory in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep-blue lean—evident in Harris's 14-point win there last cycle—and Merkley's consistent margins, including a 17-point reelection in 2020. Republicans face a fragmented primary field ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest, with candidates like state Sen. David Brock Smith and perennial contender Jo Rae Perkins lacking crossover appeal among independents, who comprise a key voting bloc. No recent polls show GOP traction, underscoring historical base rates where Democrats have dominated Oregon Senate races since 1996. Upsets would require a moderate Republican nominee consolidating support, a national midterm wave, or unforeseen Merkley scandal before November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democrat
93%
Republican
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democrat
$1,524 거래량
93%
Republican
$1,035 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley, seeking a fourth term, commands trader consensus at 93% implied probability for victory in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep-blue lean—evident in Harris's 14-point win there last cycle—and Merkley's consistent margins, including a 17-point reelection in 2020. Republicans face a fragmented primary field ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest, with candidates like state Sen. David Brock Smith and perennial contender Jo Rae Perkins lacking crossover appeal among independents, who comprise a key voting bloc. No recent polls show GOP traction, underscoring historical base rates where Democrats have dominated Oregon Senate races since 1996. Upsets would require a moderate Republican nominee consolidating support, a national midterm wave, or unforeseen Merkley scandal before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
거래량
$2,559종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley, seeking a fourth term, commands trader consensus at 93% implied probability for victory in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep-blue lean—evident in Harris's 14-point win there last cycle—and Merkley's consistent margins, including a 17-point reelection in 2020. Republicans face a fragmented primary field ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest, with candidates like state Sen. David Brock Smith and perennial contender Jo Rae Perkins lacking crossover appeal among independents, who comprise a key voting bloc. No recent polls show GOP traction, underscoring historical base rates where Democrats have dominated Oregon Senate races since 1996. Upsets would require a moderate Republican nominee consolidating support, a national midterm wave, or unforeseen Merkley scandal before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$2,559종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley, seeking a fourth term, commands trader consensus at 93% implied probability for victory in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's deep-blue lean—evident in Harris's 14-point win there last cycle—and Merkley's consistent margins, including a 17-point reelection in 2020. Republicans face a fragmented primary field ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest, with candidates like state Sen. David Brock Smith and perennial contender Jo Rae Perkins lacking crossover appeal among independents, who comprise a key voting bloc. No recent polls show GOP traction, underscoring historical base rates where Democrats have dominated Oregon Senate races since 1996. Upsets would require a moderate Republican nominee consolidating support, a national midterm wave, or unforeseen Merkley scandal before November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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