Russia has conducted no nuclear tests since 1990, adhering to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty moratorium despite not ratifying it, amid heightened rhetoric over the Ukraine conflict and the New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026. In the past 30 days, no verified developments indicate preparations for a detonation; instead, the Russian military held RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile exercises on April 2 in Siberia, and NOTAMs issued April 13-18 suggest a potential Sarmat ICBM test from the Kura range near Kazakhstan—demonstrations of delivery capabilities without nuclear yields. Foreign Minister Lavrov's February pledge to uphold expired limits persists as trader consensus on restraint, though Ukraine escalations or Western arms decisions could shift dynamics ahead of any resolution date.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$1,342,393 거래량
2026.06.30
2026년 6월 30일
2%
2026년 9월 30일
9%
2026년 12월 31일
12%
$1,342,393 거래량
2026년 6월 30일
$4,269 거래량
2%
2026년 9월 30일
$1,400 거래량
9%
2026년 12월 31일
$12,151 거래량
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has conducted no nuclear tests since 1990, adhering to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty moratorium despite not ratifying it, amid heightened rhetoric over the Ukraine conflict and the New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026. In the past 30 days, no verified developments indicate preparations for a detonation; instead, the Russian military held RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile exercises on April 2 in Siberia, and NOTAMs issued April 13-18 suggest a potential Sarmat ICBM test from the Kura range near Kazakhstan—demonstrations of delivery capabilities without nuclear yields. Foreign Minister Lavrov's February pledge to uphold expired limits persists as trader consensus on restraint, though Ukraine escalations or Western arms decisions could shift dynamics ahead of any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
거래량
$1,342,393종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has conducted no nuclear tests since 1990, adhering to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty moratorium despite not ratifying it, amid heightened rhetoric over the Ukraine conflict and the New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026. In the past 30 days, no verified developments indicate preparations for a detonation; instead, the Russian military held RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile exercises on April 2 in Siberia, and NOTAMs issued April 13-18 suggest a potential Sarmat ICBM test from the Kura range near Kazakhstan—demonstrations of delivery capabilities without nuclear yields. Foreign Minister Lavrov's February pledge to uphold expired limits persists as trader consensus on restraint, though Ukraine escalations or Western arms decisions could shift dynamics ahead of any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,342,393종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia has conducted no nuclear tests since 1990, adhering to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty moratorium despite not ratifying it, amid heightened rhetoric over the Ukraine conflict and the New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026. In the past 30 days, no verified developments indicate preparations for a detonation; instead, the Russian military held RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile exercises on April 2 in Siberia, and NOTAMs issued April 13-18 suggest a potential Sarmat ICBM test from the Kura range near Kazakhstan—demonstrations of delivery capabilities without nuclear yields. Foreign Minister Lavrov's February pledge to uphold expired limits persists as trader consensus on restraint, though Ukraine escalations or Western arms decisions could shift dynamics ahead of any resolution date.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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