Trader consensus has priced "No" at a 96.9% implied probability for the Services Down Parlay, reflecting the March 31, 2026, deadline passing without all three required events—AWS "disrupted" severity outage, critical Discord incident, and critical Cloudflare incident—occurring between February 11 and then. While AWS logged qualifying regional disruptions in Middle East data centers from early March drone strikes, impacting services like Amazon S3 and DynamoDB per the Health Dashboard, official Cloudflare and Discord status pages show no matching critical incidents in the period, despite isolated reports of Discord voice issues. Clean post-deadline operations reinforce stability. Realistic risks include resolution disputes over incident classifications or administrative delays, though none appear likely given verified sources.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$13,979 거래량
$13,979 거래량
2026.03.31
$13,979 거래량
$13,979 거래량
2026.03.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus has priced "No" at a 96.9% implied probability for the Services Down Parlay, reflecting the March 31, 2026, deadline passing without all three required events—AWS "disrupted" severity outage, critical Discord incident, and critical Cloudflare incident—occurring between February 11 and then. While AWS logged qualifying regional disruptions in Middle East data centers from early March drone strikes, impacting services like Amazon S3 and DynamoDB per the Health Dashboard, official Cloudflare and Discord status pages show no matching critical incidents in the period, despite isolated reports of Discord voice issues. Clean post-deadline operations reinforce stability. Realistic risks include resolution disputes over incident classifications or administrative delays, though none appear likely given verified sources.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
마켓 개설일: Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
거래량
$13,979종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus has priced "No" at a 96.9% implied probability for the Services Down Parlay, reflecting the March 31, 2026, deadline passing without all three required events—AWS "disrupted" severity outage, critical Discord incident, and critical Cloudflare incident—occurring between February 11 and then. While AWS logged qualifying regional disruptions in Middle East data centers from early March drone strikes, impacting services like Amazon S3 and DynamoDB per the Health Dashboard, official Cloudflare and Discord status pages show no matching critical incidents in the period, despite isolated reports of Discord voice issues. Clean post-deadline operations reinforce stability. Realistic risks include resolution disputes over incident classifications or administrative delays, though none appear likely given verified sources.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
거래량
$13,979종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus has priced "No" at a 96.9% implied probability for the Services Down Parlay, reflecting the March 31, 2026, deadline passing without all three required events—AWS "disrupted" severity outage, critical Discord incident, and critical Cloudflare incident—occurring between February 11 and then. While AWS logged qualifying regional disruptions in Middle East data centers from early March drone strikes, impacting services like Amazon S3 and DynamoDB per the Health Dashboard, official Cloudflare and Discord status pages show no matching critical incidents in the period, despite isolated reports of Discord voice issues. Clean post-deadline operations reinforce stability. Realistic risks include resolution disputes over incident classifications or administrative delays, though none appear likely given verified sources.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문