Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 79.5% for Turkey advancing a new constitution in 2026, reflecting the absence of formal parliamentary action or referendum announcement through mid-April despite earlier momentum. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) submitted draft proposals to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan by late 2025, gained three opposition MPs in January 2026—boosting seats toward the 360-vote supermajority required for referendum—and saw Erdoğan label the year one of key reforms, including constitutional changes. However, no bill introduction has followed, with opposition parties like CHP resisting amid procedural hurdles and historical delays in past amendment efforts; no notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this stasis.