The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying on science-based stockpile stewardship to maintain arsenal reliability. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing their activities and the impending expiration of New START in February 2026. Administration officials subsequently clarified that implementation remains under review, with no decision on full-scale underground explosive tests as of March 2026, though low-yield or subcritical options have not been ruled out. These developments, alongside congressional resolutions opposing resumption and international concerns over proliferation risks, shape trader assessments of near-term testing likelihood.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$667,461 거래량
2026.06.30
2026년 6월 30일
2%
2026년 9월 30일
5%
2026년 12월 31일
9%
$667,461 거래량
2026년 6월 30일
$40,114 거래량
2%
2026년 9월 30일
$6,656 거래량
5%
2026년 12월 31일
$10,472 거래량
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying on science-based stockpile stewardship to maintain arsenal reliability. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing their activities and the impending expiration of New START in February 2026. Administration officials subsequently clarified that implementation remains under review, with no decision on full-scale underground explosive tests as of March 2026, though low-yield or subcritical options have not been ruled out. These developments, alongside congressional resolutions opposing resumption and international concerns over proliferation risks, shape trader assessments of near-term testing likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
거래량
$667,461종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying on science-based stockpile stewardship to maintain arsenal reliability. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing their activities and the impending expiration of New START in February 2026. Administration officials subsequently clarified that implementation remains under review, with no decision on full-scale underground explosive tests as of March 2026, though low-yield or subcritical options have not been ruled out. These developments, alongside congressional resolutions opposing resumption and international concerns over proliferation risks, shape trader assessments of near-term testing likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$667,461종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying on science-based stockpile stewardship to maintain arsenal reliability. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing their activities and the impending expiration of New START in February 2026. Administration officials subsequently clarified that implementation remains under review, with no decision on full-scale underground explosive tests as of March 2026, though low-yield or subcritical options have not been ruled out. These developments, alongside congressional resolutions opposing resumption and international concerns over proliferation risks, shape trader assessments of near-term testing likelihood.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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