The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on subcritical experiments, advanced simulations, and stockpile stewardship programs managed by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare for resuming tests—citing Russia and China's programs—sparked debate but has not resulted in any detonation, with experts estimating 24-36 months for full readiness due to infrastructure needs and safety protocols. Recent milestones include the February 2026 expiration of the New START treaty and U.S. accusations of Chinese sub-kiloton tests, while a March 2026 State Department official indicated ongoing assessments without committing to underground explosions. Congressional funding debates in FY2026 budgets and NNSA readiness reports remain key watchpoints for potential shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$638,252 거래량
2026.06.30
2026년 6월 30일
1%
2026년 9월 30일
8%
2026년 12월 31일
14%
$638,252 거래량
2026년 6월 30일
$23,084 거래량
1%
2026년 9월 30일
$2,096 거래량
8%
2026년 12월 31일
$2,853 거래량
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on subcritical experiments, advanced simulations, and stockpile stewardship programs managed by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare for resuming tests—citing Russia and China's programs—sparked debate but has not resulted in any detonation, with experts estimating 24-36 months for full readiness due to infrastructure needs and safety protocols. Recent milestones include the February 2026 expiration of the New START treaty and U.S. accusations of Chinese sub-kiloton tests, while a March 2026 State Department official indicated ongoing assessments without committing to underground explosions. Congressional funding debates in FY2026 budgets and NNSA readiness reports remain key watchpoints for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
거래량
$638,252종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on subcritical experiments, advanced simulations, and stockpile stewardship programs managed by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare for resuming tests—citing Russia and China's programs—sparked debate but has not resulted in any detonation, with experts estimating 24-36 months for full readiness due to infrastructure needs and safety protocols. Recent milestones include the February 2026 expiration of the New START treaty and U.S. accusations of Chinese sub-kiloton tests, while a March 2026 State Department official indicated ongoing assessments without committing to underground explosions. Congressional funding debates in FY2026 budgets and NNSA readiness reports remain key watchpoints for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$638,252종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on subcritical experiments, advanced simulations, and stockpile stewardship programs managed by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare for resuming tests—citing Russia and China's programs—sparked debate but has not resulted in any detonation, with experts estimating 24-36 months for full readiness due to infrastructure needs and safety protocols. Recent milestones include the February 2026 expiration of the New START treaty and U.S. accusations of Chinese sub-kiloton tests, while a March 2026 State Department official indicated ongoing assessments without committing to underground explosions. Congressional funding debates in FY2026 budgets and NNSA readiness reports remain key watchpoints for potential shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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