Mexican security forces killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes during a February 22 operation in Jalisco, triggering roadblocks, violence, and unrest in tourist areas but failing to produce an arrest of Mexico's most-wanted fugitive. No top-tier cartel leaders have been captured alive in 2026 so far, despite January extraditions of 37 Sinaloa and other mid-level operatives to the US amid bilateral pressure on fentanyl trafficking and narcoterrorism charges, including against figures like Pedro Inzunza Noriega. US indictments continue, such as Sinaloa's René Arzate-García in late February, while DEA rewards target Guzmán sons like Iván Archivaldo. Heightened operations ahead of the 2026 World Cup co-hosted by Mexico could drive arrests of remaining plaza bosses or successors, shaping trader consensus on year-end outcomes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026년에 체포될 카르텔 지도자는 누구입니까?
2026년에 체포될 카르텔 지도자는 누구입니까?
$75,312 거래량
2026.02.28
이반 아르치발도 구스만 살라자
45%
헤수스 알프레도 구즈만 살라사르
56%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
53%
아우디아스 플로레스-실바
28%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
39%
후안 카를로스 발렌시아 곤살레스
55%
후안 레예스 메히아 곤살레스
55%
후안 파블로 레데즈마
61%
$75,312 거래량
이반 아르치발도 구스만 살라자
$5,603 거래량
45%
헤수스 알프레도 구즈만 살라사르
$5,775 거래량
56%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
$0 거래량
53%
아우디아스 플로레스-실바
$0 거래량
28%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
$4,795 거래량
39%
후안 카를로스 발렌시아 곤살레스
$58,491 거래량
55%
후안 레예스 메히아 곤살레스
$0 거래량
55%
후안 파블로 레데즈마
$647 거래량
61%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican security forces killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes during a February 22 operation in Jalisco, triggering roadblocks, violence, and unrest in tourist areas but failing to produce an arrest of Mexico's most-wanted fugitive. No top-tier cartel leaders have been captured alive in 2026 so far, despite January extraditions of 37 Sinaloa and other mid-level operatives to the US amid bilateral pressure on fentanyl trafficking and narcoterrorism charges, including against figures like Pedro Inzunza Noriega. US indictments continue, such as Sinaloa's René Arzate-García in late February, while DEA rewards target Guzmán sons like Iván Archivaldo. Heightened operations ahead of the 2026 World Cup co-hosted by Mexico could drive arrests of remaining plaza bosses or successors, shaping trader consensus on year-end outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
거래량
$75,312종료일
2026.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican security forces killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes during a February 22 operation in Jalisco, triggering roadblocks, violence, and unrest in tourist areas but failing to produce an arrest of Mexico's most-wanted fugitive. No top-tier cartel leaders have been captured alive in 2026 so far, despite January extraditions of 37 Sinaloa and other mid-level operatives to the US amid bilateral pressure on fentanyl trafficking and narcoterrorism charges, including against figures like Pedro Inzunza Noriega. US indictments continue, such as Sinaloa's René Arzate-García in late February, while DEA rewards target Guzmán sons like Iván Archivaldo. Heightened operations ahead of the 2026 World Cup co-hosted by Mexico could drive arrests of remaining plaza bosses or successors, shaping trader consensus on year-end outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$75,312종료일
2026.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mexican security forces killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes during a February 22 operation in Jalisco, triggering roadblocks, violence, and unrest in tourist areas but failing to produce an arrest of Mexico's most-wanted fugitive. No top-tier cartel leaders have been captured alive in 2026 so far, despite January extraditions of 37 Sinaloa and other mid-level operatives to the US amid bilateral pressure on fentanyl trafficking and narcoterrorism charges, including against figures like Pedro Inzunza Noriega. US indictments continue, such as Sinaloa's René Arzate-García in late February, while DEA rewards target Guzmán sons like Iván Archivaldo. Heightened operations ahead of the 2026 World Cup co-hosted by Mexico could drive arrests of remaining plaza bosses or successors, shaping trader consensus on year-end outcomes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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