Following inconclusive US-Iran talks in Islamabad from April 10-12—led by Vice President J.D. Vance and Iran's parliamentary speaker amid a fragile two-week ceasefire—diplomats are arranging a second round, boosting trader consensus on Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff (83% implied probability) as the most likely US representative to physically attend a diplomatic meeting by April 30. Witkoff's prior backchannel role via Pakistan, including a 15-point peace plan on nuclear curbs and Strait of Hormuz access, positions him ahead of Vance (76%) despite the VP's recent involvement. Sticking points like uranium enrichment timelines persist, with President Trump signaling optimism for de-escalation before the ceasefire expires. A 40-nation Hormuz security coalition adds pressure for progress.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
$101,094 거래량
2026.04.30
도널드 트럼프
7%
제이디 밴스
75%
마르코 루비오
12%
자레드 쿠슈너
73%
스티브 위트코프
82%
$101,094 거래량
도널드 트럼프
$85,460 거래량
7%
제이디 밴스
$7,320 거래량
75%
마르코 루비오
$3,788 거래량
12%
자레드 쿠슈너
$1,283 거래량
73%
스티브 위트코프
$3,242 거래량
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following inconclusive US-Iran talks in Islamabad from April 10-12—led by Vice President J.D. Vance and Iran's parliamentary speaker amid a fragile two-week ceasefire—diplomats are arranging a second round, boosting trader consensus on Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff (83% implied probability) as the most likely US representative to physically attend a diplomatic meeting by April 30. Witkoff's prior backchannel role via Pakistan, including a 15-point peace plan on nuclear curbs and Strait of Hormuz access, positions him ahead of Vance (76%) despite the VP's recent involvement. Sticking points like uranium enrichment timelines persist, with President Trump signaling optimism for de-escalation before the ceasefire expires. A 40-nation Hormuz security coalition adds pressure for progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
거래량
$101,094종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following inconclusive US-Iran talks in Islamabad from April 10-12—led by Vice President J.D. Vance and Iran's parliamentary speaker amid a fragile two-week ceasefire—diplomats are arranging a second round, boosting trader consensus on Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff (83% implied probability) as the most likely US representative to physically attend a diplomatic meeting by April 30. Witkoff's prior backchannel role via Pakistan, including a 15-point peace plan on nuclear curbs and Strait of Hormuz access, positions him ahead of Vance (76%) despite the VP's recent involvement. Sticking points like uranium enrichment timelines persist, with President Trump signaling optimism for de-escalation before the ceasefire expires. A 40-nation Hormuz security coalition adds pressure for progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$101,094종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following inconclusive US-Iran talks in Islamabad from April 10-12—led by Vice President J.D. Vance and Iran's parliamentary speaker amid a fragile two-week ceasefire—diplomats are arranging a second round, boosting trader consensus on Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff (83% implied probability) as the most likely US representative to physically attend a diplomatic meeting by April 30. Witkoff's prior backchannel role via Pakistan, including a 15-point peace plan on nuclear curbs and Strait of Hormuz access, positions him ahead of Vance (76%) despite the VP's recent involvement. Sticking points like uranium enrichment timelines persist, with President Trump signaling optimism for de-escalation before the ceasefire expires. A 40-nation Hormuz security coalition adds pressure for progress.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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